The eminent technology, blockchain, that has received a lot of attention from the whole world is rumored to take a dip in 2018. This concern was addressed in an article titled “Predictions 2018: The Blockchain Revolution Will Have to Wait A Little Longer” in a study by Forrester. The analysts from Forrester research have reasons to believe that the projects initiated by the companies trying to incorporate blockchain technologies in their businesses will either shutdown or will still not be anywhere near to accomplishing their goal. It is alleged that at least 90% of companies might put their projects on hold and the blockchain projects might “never become part of the company’s operations.”
The principal analyst, Martha Bennett wrote,
In 2018, we expect to see a number of projects stopped that should never have been started in the first place.
According to Bloomberg, Ron Resnick, who is the first executive director of the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) hinting on the fact that blockchain technology is still in the development and testing phase and is nowhere ready to be embraced in totality by the masses saying that,
[companies] are still testing the waters.
Looking at the current situation that has prevailed, it would suffice to say that many of the prediction that were made, hold veracity. Because many of the companies who were supposed to have an up and running division devoted to blockchain projects have not even begun their testing phase. Among many of them, the names worth mentioning would be that of IBM and Microsoft.
Microsoft has gained 19 percent of the more than $700 million market for blockchain tech based products and services according to, Wintergreen Research Inc. Microsoft announced that it would provide services that are built with the blockchain tech. It would ensure that a better version of supply chain would be provided to the customers so that not even a single transaction would go unchecked or would minimize and eradicate all sorts of faults and errors. They have shown eagerness in the adaptation of blockchain and have to keep up with the rapidly growing demand.
Talking to Bloomberg, Microsoft made a statement,
We see tremendous momentum and progress in the enterprise Blockchain marketplace. We remain committed to developing cutting-edge technology and working side-by-side with industry leaders to ensure business of all types realize this value.
Where Microsoft claimed only 17%, IBM has claim over 32% of the blockchain projects being developed. With the demand rising every day, IBM has had to incorporate a huge staff for the purposes of development. The prices of providing their services have been also been increasing due to the astonishing number of businesses wanting to integrate blockchain technology.
Talking to Bloomberg, Roger Kay, president of Endpoint Technologies Associate, had a more than few words to say about these firms,
Blockchain is supposed to be an important future revenue stream for IBM, Microsoft and others in equipment sales, cloud services and consulting.
If it materializes more slowly, analysts will have to make downward revisions.
Nasdaq Inc. is a high profile champion of blockchain and cryptocurrencies that showed a lot of enthusiasm when they mentioned in 2016 about using blockchain for voting in shareholder meetings and private-company stock issuance. However, what so ever progress they have made in this regard is still behind covers.
Magnus Haglind, NASDAQ’s senior vice president and head of product management for market technology, said;
The expectation was we’d quickly find use cases, but introducing new technologies requires broad collaboration with industry participants, and it all takes time.
Amidst all these speculations, one thing that has been pointed out is that blockchain has to be one most hyped technologies ever. The expectation that came with it may be more intense than usual. One has to consider that developing a ground breaking technology and actually implementing it so the world can be acclimatized with it can take decades. Rajesh Kandaswamy, an analyst at Gartner Inc. said,
The disconnect between the hype and the reality is significant — I’ve never seen anything like it, in terms of actual production use, it’s very rare.
The hazards that comes along with introducing new technologies is not subsided. The threat of producing an incompatible product or a complex one which no one can get accustomed to can lead to defamation of the technology underlying it and can adversely affect the producer’s credibility as well. Brian Behlendorf who is the executive director of Hyperledger, said,
They want to see other people fail first — they don’t wanna be a guinea pig, It’s just the nature of enterprise software.
Mike Novogratz, former Wall Street executive has also expressed his view about the adoption of blockchain technology by the masses in the coming years.
You won’t see mass adoption until the user experience does not feel like something new and that is still five to six years away.
In reconsideration, there has been colossal advance in technology in recent years. The masses embraced these technologies with open arms and are yearning for more. In these circumstances, it is not utterly senseless to reconsider our expectations from the impending advancement. Blockchain might lead to a technological revolution but for now it seems to be the beginning.
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. – Amara’s Law