BlockPublisher Blockchain, Altcoins & Bitcoin News Wed, 28 Oct 2020 13:27:44 +0000 en-US hourly 1 BlockPublisher 32 32 150524498 The Reality of Why Buying Into This Bitcoin Rally is a Big Mistake Wed, 28 Oct 2020 13:27:44 +0000 This year we’ve seen historic levels of uncertainty, which has resulted in historic levels of volatility, and irrationality. Bitcoin and Stocks have been dominating the headlines for the last few months as retail investors rush to jump in. We’ve seen a 700%+ increase in Robinhood, and Coinbase traders.

Traders don’t know what to do, and are buying and selling based on whatever the crowd is doing, rather than their own consciousness. We’ve seen this with the dozens of overpriced tech stocks such as Apple, Amazon, and Tesla, as well as the level of money being blindly thrown into Bitcoin, and even worthless DeFi coins named after memes.

Nobody knows the “true” value for these speculative assets. Everyone is speculating on what it’s worth, and we often go through these market cycles which are essentially a display of Investors emotions.

The same people that are blindly jumping into Bitcoin above 13K, were likely the same people who sold Bitcoin in March as we dropped below 4K.

This article will touch on how hype can quickly turn to fear, and why buying into this rally above $13,000 is a big mistake.

What are we rising on?

Tether Minting

Think of Tether as the Federal Reserve for Bitcoin. This controversial coin has the ability to essentially mint fake U.S Dollars, and move them into Bitcoin.

This year, we’ve seen Tethers market cap grow by over 300%, which much of the MC has been funneled into BTC, and other assets to boost the price, and essentially launder money back into real fiat.

Tether USDT MarketCap 2020

Many bulls will refuse to acknowledge this theory, simply because it means the majority of Bitcoin market cap is propped up on fake money, which would mean there is a lot less demand than many claim.

The reason that this isn’t sustainable, and supports my short term bearish sentiment is the fact that Tether is currently involved in a massive fraud and price manipulation investigation by the U.S.

When they do become insolvent in the future, it will be a big deal that can no longer be ignored by Bitcoin maximalists.

Institutional Investors

When the prices rise, you’ll often see new narrative pop up. These narratives gain popularity as they are constructs generated through misinterpretations, and over reactions. Investors often feel unsafe holding or buying into an asset unless there is continuous “good news” that further justify their irrational positions.

We saw many overreacted narratives such as Bakkt Futures, TA’s Golden Cross, and even Libra, in 2019. Which all eventually failed to match up to their expectations, as I predicted they would.

In 2020, we’re seeing a repeat in this trend. A rapid increase in narratives that are being misinterpreted, and over-reacted upon by greedy investors.

To summarize, this whole narrative on institutional investors rushing to buy up all of Bitcoin’s supply is nothing more than a marketing scheme by big companies such as Greyscale, Square, and MicroStrategy to grow the price of their stocks.

U.S Stimulus / Stock Correlation

What perma-bulls fail to realize is that in 2020 we’ve witnessed with largest increase in Quantitative Easing in history. Trillions of dollars have been printed, and are now circulating around the global economy.

This money has undoubtedly effected all markets, which is why Bitcoin isn’t the only thing rising. We’ve seen a huge surge in most assets, including companies that have even gone bankrupt.

Bitcoin has a STRONG correlation with the stock market. Many don’t know this, but BTC has followed a similar market trend since it was created in 2009.

Bitcoin and stocks correlation

Bitcoin vs Dow Jones index

In addition, the 2020 market bottom for stocks and cryptocurrencies took place in the same time that stimulus was approved.

This isn’t just a random coincidence…

The markets aren’t rising because of new demand, they are rising because of artificial money being pushed into them, which isn’t sustainable forever.

Bitcoin and US stimulus

Many traders have a short term memory.

Just last year, we had a bull rally that was almost identical to the rally we’re seeing this year, and yet nobody learned any lessons.

In 2019, the market sentiment started off in a fearful way. We had just plummeted from 6K to low 3Ks, and there was lots of bad news circulating, especially regarding the Tether lawsuit scandal.

This fear lasted a few months, until the markets started seeing some green as spring came along. This growth started picking up momentum as time went on, and ended in the summer of 2019, pumping to just under $14,000.

This chart below displays the rally we saw last year. It was characterized by three main shifts in sentiment. This rapid increase in price was largely caused by Facebook’s Libra, which was gaining worldwide publicity.

2019 Bitcoin Rally

During the FOMO phase, in June 2019, a majority of news outlets, cryptocurrency influencers, and public figures were talking about how everyone should buy in up there.

That area was undoubtedly where the majority of retail traders jumped in. They were tricked into a false narrative that we would surpass all time highs, and reach insanely high targets like $100,000 or $1,000,000.

I vividly remember many traders talking about a “golden bull cross” which allegedly signaled a bull run to $1,000,000+ by the end of the year. This obviously wasn’t the case, and was nothing more than speculation.

As we can see in the visual below, once the rally had gone mainstream, and everyone jumped back in, the markets corrected hard. With all the bullish news conveniently circulating at the top, (that was allegedly going to pump it higher) we instead witnessed extreme fear for months, which ended with a total correction of almost 75%.

2019-2020 Bitcoin Crash

Why is this important? Well it shows how market cycles work. The area where everyone is blindly buying in because of hype, is where the market tops, and the point where everyone is blindly selling because of fear, is where the market bottoms.

Investors fall for these traps over and over again, which is why being a contrarian Investor is important. It’s important to avoid the noise, and not become the next victim associated with buying the top, or selling the bottom.

We’re seeing Extreme FOMO right now.

The truth is, nobody knows exactly where the price will top, but we can make general assumptions based on how greedy/fearful the sentiment is.

Right now, we’re witnessing extreme levels of greed, not seen for a while.

2020 bitcoin fomo

“ Greed is always followed by fear. “

This unsustainable level of greed will undoubtedly result in extreme fear in the future, as the over exaggerated narratives begin to lose significance.

It’s very dangerous to be buying into this hype rally, especially considering there’s a strong (95%) chance that we correct below $10,000 in the near future, and even potentially drop to below March lows — as crazy as that sounds now.

Bitcoin CME futures

There’s many unfilled CME gaps that have been opened on the last few months of market action. These gaps are almost always filled, and have been a strong indicator for market movements.

This was one of the main reasons why I was advising my followers to buy Bitcoin in March after we crashed under $4000.

The CME gaps predicted a rise beyond 11.8K, which obviously came true. We’re now in a period of lots of hype, and excitement, which is exactly what happened in December 2017, and June 2019, where the late and inexperienced investors begin FOMO’ing in.


The average Investors lack many experiences in the market to make rational decisions, which is why they partake in group think.

This dysfunctional decision-making has resulted in many of the severe pumps, and crashes over the years. People would prefer to blindly follow the crowd, rather than act alone due to human psychology.

Going against the crowd is what being a contrarian is about. Sir John Templeton was famous for saying that the best time to buy stocks is “when there’s blood in the streets.”

Howard Marks constantly reminds us in his letters that human nature compels investors to “buy high and sell low,” and his advice is to do just the opposite.

When groupthink dominates and valuations reach extremes, it’s probably time to take the opposite side of the trade.

Avoid BTC at 14000

I personally will not be opening any long positions into Bitcoin in this pink box, and continuously be adding to my shorts the higher we go.

Shorting on a hype rally can be dangerous, so I always advice individuals to use little to no leverage to avoid liquidation.

I believe we will top soon, and even in 2021 we will experience lots of red in the markets (both stock + crypto). We cannot forget the many reasons why the markets aren’t sustainable, and why buying in at a 90 degree angle probably isn’t the best decision.

What can I do to avoid FOMO?

Controlling your emotions can be extremely difficult. I’ve written many threads on how to do so, but many still fail to follow these rules.

The simplest way to avoid large losses during FOMO rallies like this is to just avoid staring at the charts. As mentioned earlier, nobody knows the exact top. It is inconsequential to continuously look at the prices each day unless you are waiting on a buying entry, in which won’t be suggested for long time.

Take a break from being on the computer, or your trading app, and avoid continuously viewing the prices. By watching them for long periods of time, you will experience the feeling of missing out, and want in.

Authored by CryptoWhale @

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Earning “Cryptocurrencies” or “Digital Money” on Bitcoin Fri, 23 Oct 2020 07:35:41 +0000 Ever since the cryptocurrency network started, a lot of people have gone along to earn a living via trading online. A man that goes by the pseudonym, “Satoshi Nakamoto,” created Bitcoin way back 2009 to allow people to make transactions and send virtual money to whomever and wherever part of the world. It was once only just a transaction from peer to peer; however, as it grew, it transitioned to be a site that can be a source for living as well.

This does not have a third party included, meaning no government and banks interfere with the trading. You can easily send money around the world as swiftly as you can. Since there is no involvement of any third party here, you cannot have control over your bitcoin’s price. It means the cost of one bitcoin can shift from time to time. Take, for example, this situation; if you own a bitcoin worth $6,000, this can either increase up to $8,000 or fall down to $5,000 worth.

Cryptocurrency can be a bit overwhelming as they will need to let you decide on things continuously and take note as well, quickly. The pressure of getting it done right away can be tiring for our brains to keep up. Luckily, as cryptocurrency started, there also comes people and sites that offer financial services. They will aid you in choosing wise decisions, lessening your stress, and also take away that overwhelming pressure.

Not just that, automated bots can also help you in performing your transactions even when you are fast asleep. Just sign up and register to an auto-trading site and then let the bots do its work.

How do they work and are they reliable, you say? You can put all your trust with these bots as it will help you in gaining more profits than what you earn from before. The good thing about them, since they are robots, they proceed with their work swiftly without any sort of emotion to bother them. As humans, of course, when we lose money, our emotions can get the best of us, and we start to act hastily. Thus the bots will just continue with their work and will not hesitate to start selling and trading again to earn back their money. It is as if nothing happened, and they are just working to earn more money. They work 24/7, and without you knowing, you may have already earned a lot of bitcoins while you were resting.

Additional benefits of having an automated bot do the work for you is that it will also organize your reports, and you can get notified by them. They can provide you a neat list of all your transactions that summarizes everything with what you have bought and sold. Really, the only job you have to do is checking and monitoring your app regularly.

Once you get a great and reliable auto-trading bot, we guarantee you that you will earn a good amount of cryptocurrencies over time. Another way to earn digital money on Bitcoin is mining bitcoins. People who earn here have already said that this method also guarantees to bring you more money and earnings.

Our generation is at the peak of innovation. With all these manufactured improved gadgets, Bitcoin is surely not just the only site to earn digital money. You can visit to know more about them.

Do take note that these sites are easy to be hacked by hackers since we earn online and via the screen of our gadgets. You will never know when they have signed in on your account, and they can get your hard-earned digital money as fast as seconds. Be very careful in handling your money so that you will not end up in a difficult situation. Be aware of your account and stay away from doubted sites. A lot of people still continue earning from here, so the choice is really just for you to decide.

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Knowing More About Bitcoin Trading Fri, 23 Oct 2020 07:10:34 +0000 Bitcoin is the future of money. As time flies, a new generation arises. There is now advanced technology, and believe me, Bitcoin can be our future money.

Learning Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a digital transaction of money wherein you can buy and sell cryptocurrencies to earn a profit.

Cryptocurrencies are what they call their money in the cryptocurrency market. Since Bitcoin transacts digital money, what you get is also digital money. Cryptocurrencies can also be called the “future money”, “virtual money”, and “digital money.” These are not printed, and you will only be seeing them through the screen of your gadget. However, you can still convert them in flat cash when you want it.

A tricky situation, though, the government and banks do not acknowledge the making of cryptocurrency. Yes, there is no third party involved in the matters of Bitcoin. With this, you can send money to someone across the globe without the hassle of preparing papers and such.

Did you know? Bitcoin was actually just developed to be an easy platform to send money for your peers in any part of the world. Now, as it got much recognition, the developer who hides in the pseudonym, “Satoshi Nakamoto,” changed it and turned Bitcoin into a platform where you can now also earn money.

Earning Cryptocurrencies

Everything in the cryptocurrency network works the same. Bitcoin is not the only platform created to trade cryptocurrencies. We also have a Crypto Genius. You can check more about it if you try this app

Earning money in cryptocurrency requires technique and great decision making. You need to be fast to think about what you should do as the software does not wait for you. They want you to choose the best option when trading and not to mention. They want it done fast.

This can take on a lot of pressure for one person, so I am here to tell you that you can have the option of not working alone. There are a lot of sites that offer help on decision making solely for the cryptocurrency industry.

The ones that will be helping you there are automated bots in which they can work nonstop, day and night. Since they are developed robots, there is no need to worry about them getting tangled with their emotions or having doubts about their choices since they were made only to operate on what they need to do. They are different from us humans, so it is more likely that they will be easily flustered when they come upon something wrong. Even in your sleep, they will work. Once you wake up, you can expect yourself to see more opportunities with cryptocurrency to bring forth.

Now, how do they work? They work by performing algorithms. There is also another process of earning, which is mining. This can be a gamble, however, but chances of getting rewards can still be high.

Investing in Bitcoin

If you are questioning whether Bitcoin can be a good investment, why not give it a try? A lot of people had already pursued this as their way of living since I can admit that their software has great factors.

  • Transparent

We have already talked about how bitcoin does not have any third party included. Since the government and banks do not meddle in the business here, we can freely check our balance money, unlike in banks where the only ones knowing about how much you have is the bank.

  • No Taxes Included

This might have been the best thing so far here about having no third party in the cryptocurrency industry. The government will not ask for the additional tasks when you pay for bitcoins that you will be buying.

  • Open To All

Bitcoin is not only for business majors. You can start an account even with zero experience. By using it, you will then learn more about it and grow.

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Introducing Bitcoin of the Cryptocurrency Market Fri, 23 Oct 2020 07:03:28 +0000 As time progresses, not only do the people improve but also our surroundings and devices. The worlds we live in are full of people with innovative minds. Many have invented impressive gadgets, and now, without a doubt, you can even start and earn digital money or “cryptocurrencies” as the people from these networks might say.

“Cryptocurrencies” is what the people who earn money online call them. How do you earn money, though, you may ask? Well, there are a lot of networking sites that offer you this job; an example of those is bitcoinup trading software and introducing the “Mother of Cryptocurrency”, Bitcoin. They are a trading platform that allows you to trade cryptocurrencies in financial markets. Anyone can join as long as you sign up for an account and are ready for it.

Bitcoin got started being programmed and developed around 2007. On the 18th of August 2008, its domain name “” was signed up by an anonymous person. Later in October 2008, “Satoshi Nakamoto” announced that he was working on a peer to peer money transaction system. Earlier in 2009, Bitcoin was successfully updated and is now part of the innovative trading network.

Additional information, the developer of Bitcoin is still not known up to this day. He hides under the pseudonym “Satoshi Nakamoto.” Some have already created theories about his identity, speculating that they are actually a team or a Japanese man because of the “Nakamoto.” Others just dismissed this, though.

Now, our next question would be, how does it work? It works based on advanced algorithms— they check who gets the most profitable trades in the market and start trading automatically. It uses big data as it makes informed trading decisions— meaning they apply their strategies the same to forex and stock markets in a much more high frequency of historical data. This benefits much and is more on the mark than human analysts. Another, they work much faster than humans since they can finish analyzing a huge amount of data as fast as seconds and then perform the trades.

Not only does Bitcoin use technical analysis to proceed with its tracing decision, but it also uses fundamental analysis as well. Technical analysis is what picks out trading options basing on the historical data whilst the other proceeds when the bot finds out tradable news and then continues to analyze it correspondingly.

Bitcoin is said to be easy, even for people who have no experience in this platform. Besides, it is easy to use, another benefit of it is that it does not take most of your time in managing your accounts (this is applicable in all automated software). You will only have to spend minutes each day to set how much you want to invest per trade as well as which currency you would interest in trading, leaving all of the other work for the automated bot. Once a trade is decided and matches your trading factors, the bot will start the trading process without your interruption.

Automated trading is a very advantageous way of earning money; you can even earn cryptocurrencies while you sleep. However, the automated bot indeed manages most of your account; you still need to check your account regularly. Finding more trading opportunities rather than relying on the bots will surely step up your trading accuracy; much accuracy means more money coming.

Last question; is it possible to withdraw your money from Bitcoin? Of course. You will be needed to submit requirements, and your digital money will be converted to flat money right away. Surprisingly since the government still does not acknowledge Cryptocurrency, there are already some stores that allow cryptocurrencies as payment. These are KFC, Burger King, and Microsoft.

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How to Buy Bitcoin in Canada with a Credit Card Thu, 22 Oct 2020 09:56:00 +0000 Buying Bitcoin or any other crypto with a credit card around the globe is perceived to be a tricky business. Most exchanges forbid the use of PayPal and credit cards due to the security reasons involved. PayPal and credit card payments can be reversed by simply notifying the service provider that the payment made was a mistake and it needs to be reversed. Bitcoin transactions, however, are irreversible and a reversed transaction through the aforementioned mediums can cost the exchange or broker a lot.

Although the above points may prove to be valid in some cases, the users demand ease, and to be honest, wire transfers are not very fast. This is why some exchanges and brokers have emerged who have identified this issue and have consequently allowed users to buy and sell bitcoins through credit cards globally. To save themselves from such scams, they have made simple procedures that allow buying through credit cards after small procedures of verification and security.

The main markets to target in this specific domain are India, the US, Canada, Scotland, and other crypto inclined nations. Specifically for Canadian users, this process has been streamlined and made easier through brokers like With a daily buying limit of $10,000, a transaction can easily be performed simply by adding the address of the wallet as well as adding the credit card information. To make the process secure and free from scams, the platform requires a small procedure of verification after which the user is allowed to buy freely through the credit card landing page.

There are major exchanges that have allowed buying through credit cards as well. For example, exchanges like OKEx have also made this buying procedure easier by providing users the opportunity to get access to the crypto world through their desired medium of payments. Accessibility is easily the best step ahead for crypto. With the talks of crypto adoption and the next big bull run emerging, it is obvious that this can only be achieved by giving the users ease to enter the market. They need to see openings which, if not better, are equally good as the alternatives of crypto. This is where exchanges and brokers play a major role. The conversion rate is defined through user experience. Once a user anticipates an uptrend, she should be able to access the desired crypto instantly to bring high volumes in the crypto market, which in turn would benefit both, the user and the overall market capitalization of crypto. Now, of course, we understand that holding crypto is perceived to be the best step ahead for investors but there should be options that can help users to make informed decisions. This requires instant liquidity and accessibility. For the case of bitcoin, liquidity is not an issue at all since it is crowned as the premium crypto with the highest trading volumes. The only hurdle is the ease of access, which hopefully would be eliminated by other projects that are entering slowly in the cryptoverse.


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Bitcoin Mining: What is it, Why and How Bitcoins are Mined? Fri, 25 Sep 2020 17:19:45 +0000 The most popular and demanded cryptocurrency in today’s time is bitcoin. Bitcoin first came into existence when an individual named Satoshi Nakamoto created it. Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency with no physical appearance. Decentralized currency means any financial institution does not control it. The transactions made using bitcoins can never be controlled or governed by a central authority or banks, and the users pay no cost for transactions.

Beginners must know that bitcoin mining is considered the backbone of the entire bitcoin network. Specialized computers achieve mining, and this is done to provide high security to bitcoins and confirm the bitcoin transactions. The bitcoin miners achieve the mining by solving the complex mathematical problems that further get added to bitcoin transactions.

The main role of miners is to confirm the transactions by securing the bitcoin network. In return, the miners are provided new bitcoins as rewards for solving the block of transactions in every 10 minutes.

What is the actual purpose of Bitcoin Mining?

Beginners often get confused about the reason behind mining bitcoins. In this article, we will discuss the functions and aspects of bitcoin mining. The actual purposes of bitcoin mining are:

  • To issue new bitcoins.

Unlike conventional currencies that are issued by banks, the case of bitcoins is a bit different. Bitcoins are not issued or created; the bitcoin miners mine these. The bitcoin miners are the dedicated computers that solve the computation problems. For solving the block of transactions every 10 minutes, miners are rewarded with new bitcoins.

The rate of issuing the bitcoins is automatically set in code; therefore, it doesn’t allow the miners to create bitcoins from thin air or cheat the bitcoin system. The new bitcoins can only be generated by using the computing power.

  • To confirm the transactions.

Every transaction made with bitcoin is added in the blocks. Each transaction is considered completed and secures once it gets added into the block of transactions. Now many people will get confused and may ask why? The answer to your question is that once a transaction gets added into a block, it is officially entrenched in bitcoin’s blockchain technology.

  • To endow with security to the bitcoin network.

The role of miners is to secure the entire bitcoin network and verify the transactions. The miners make it difficult for attackers or hackers to stop, alter, or attack the bitcoin system. The more number of bitcoin miners make the network more secure. For bitcoin trading you can visit bitcoin up app.

How to mine Bitcoins?

Due to bitcoin’s volatile market, mining bitcoins are not considered profitable because you are unsure about profit gained from mining at the end of the day. Also, mining bitcoins consume huge electricity that can raise your electricity bills. This is why mining is usually done in big warehouses where the electricity is available at low prices. Let us know the steps included in bitcoin mining:

  1. Bitcoin wallet

To mine the bitcoins, you will get bitcoins as a reward, and these go directly into the bitcoin wallet. Therefore, it is important to have a bitcoin wallet. Select a bitcoin wallet that ensures the safety of bitcoins and offers other great features.

  1. Search a bitcoin exchange

A bitcoin exchange is a place that exchanges the bitcoins with other currencies when required. After earning the bitcoins, you may have to pay for electricity costs by selling the bitcoins. This process can only be done at a bitcoin exchange.

  1. Find hardware for bitcoin mining.

It is essential to have an ASIC miner to mine bitcoins. These are the specialized computers that are mainly built to mine bitcoins.

  1. Choose a mining pool.

After finding hardware, it’s time to choose a mining pool. Without having a mining pool, the miner may receive the payout for finding the block of transactions on his own, which is referred to as solo mining.

  1. Get the software for bitcoin mining.

Only through bitcoin mining software, the miner can fastener their mining hardware to the preferred mining pool. Software is required to point the hash rate at the mining pool.

  1. Make sure bitcoin mining is legal in your area.

In most countries, bitcoin mining is legal, but it is better to consult the local counsellors about bitcoin mining and know about the tax implications.

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What to Know Before You Launch a Blockchain Company in New York Thu, 17 Sep 2020 05:23:55 +0000 We have known for a few years now that there’s room for successful new blockchain companies in the state of New York. Back in 2018, New York City Wired highlighted some of the most successful blockchain companies to watch for in the New York City “area” (somewhat broadly defined). The piece included two new companies — ShelterZoom and Coverus — that were operating within New York City. At the time, the very notion of a blockchain company was new to most people, and the presence of a few notable startups was exciting.

Fast-forward a few more years, and there are now dozens of blockchain startups in the New York area — if not hundreds. It’s become clear that this is a promising space, and entrepreneurs are busily seeking to get in on the action.

This is undoubtedly an exciting opportunity. However, those who might be considering getting into the blockchain business in the competitive New York market should know a few things before getting started.

Starting a Company

First off is that starting an official company in New York requires that you take a few specific steps. A sort of outline by ZenBusiness lays out those steps clearly, and you’ll see that there’s nothing overly complicated about them. You need to officially name your company, determine who its registered agent is, file for a Certificate of Organization with the state, and work through a few more points concerning operating agreements and your company’s tax requirements. All in all, it can be done fairly efficiently, and with minimal hassle. But it does all have to be done before you can start an official LLC in the state.

Dealing with Cryptocurrency

If you’re looking specifically to start a company that deals with cryptocurrency, you should know in advance that this can be somewhat complicated in New York. If you’re looking to launch a crypto wallet or exchange, for example, you face long odds. We wrote about Xapo back in 2018 when it became only the sixth provider to earn the state’s notoriously exclusive BitLicense — and in the years since only a handful more wallets have joined that list. Meanwhile, the state also has a history of somewhat stingy regulatory measures concerning various aspects of the crypto world, though these have eased up somewhat in the past year. None of this means you can’t open a blockchain-related business. But if it has to do with cryptocurrency specifically there may be some additional hurdles to clear with the state.

Competitive Advantage

If you merely want to open a business that uses blockchain technology — say, to accept cryptocurrency payments — this may actually be a unique and unusual time to set yourself apart in one of the world’s most competitive working environments. For example, consider the fact that there is famously a Starbucks on very corner in New York City (or at least seemingly so). Starbucks does not, as a company, accept cryptocurrency. Now consider that you open your own coffee shop — perhaps in a younger area filled with millennials and Gen Z’ers familiar with cryptocurrency — and you accept bitcoin payments. You won’t exactly put Starbucks out of business, but this example illustrates how blockchain-related companies actually have a rare chance to establish themselves as something new and different, even in New York.

The Wave

The final thing we’d point out to those considering blockchain entrepreneurism in New York (or any similarly competitive market) is that there’s a wave to catch. An article on Entrepreneur puts forward the interesting idea that now is the time to act on an impulse to invest in crypto- and blockchain-related ventures. This wasn’t based on some price chart or specific finding so much as the idea that emerging technologies and concepts spark waves of success. And a market as busy as New York is just where hopeful startup founders are looking to catch such a wave. This doesn’t mean that blindly throwing your hat into the blockchain ring will result in success and riches. However, if you have a blockchain-related concept with real-world appeal, that solves a problem or introduces a new idea, there’s something to be said for striking while the iron’s hot.

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Most Profitable Games in Online Casino Mon, 07 Sep 2020 15:19:36 +0000 Most casino games are a great way to entertain yourself and attain a high level of excitement. Due to the establishment of many online casinos, one is able to play some exclusive valuations and some of the original casino classics, all this at your comfort.

The most reputable online casinos have invested in high-quality games with great graphics and sound effects. They have made it possible to play online the same kind of exciting games on offer on many land-based casinos.
There are a wide variety of online games that one can enjoy at any place or time. These include table games, video poker, roulette, slots, live dealer games, arcade games, etc. You can try them at the Money Wheel Casino.

The most popular ones are the live games, which are streamed live in real-time by a well-experienced dealer with whom you can chat. The online casinos’ main goal is to give you an opportunity to get a realistic experience, the same as if you were at a land-based casino. However, it should be noted that excitement is not the only feature that attracts players to these online casinos from all over the globe.

Return to Player and House Edge

Except for entertainment purposes, most players also play their favorite games as a way to make some profit. Every game offers a different house edge. This is the built-in advantage that casinos have. It should be noted that one’s chance of winning depends significantly on this factor. So it is essential to note the house edge of every game so as to determine which is the most profitable to you.

One other factor that should be put into consideration is a Return to Player.

This is a term that is typically used to show the expected percentage return in the long run. A good example is European roulette, which offers a house edge of 2,70%, this means that the RTP will be 97,30 percent. In this situation, if the RTP is high, the better. Learn to look for games that offer the lowest house edge. This will give you an advantage when you play as you can play for longer, and your funds will not be consumed all at once.

Which are the most profitable casino games?

It should be noted that your odds in winning are different because every casino game tends to offer a different payout and house edge.

To have fun and make some money off online casinos, you need to understand what games offer the best payout percentage and house edge.

Most casino games that offer a great chance of winning require one to have a specific skill set to play them. This is what influences a great outcome to a certain extent. Learning of a reliable strategy will go a long way in helping you win in this case. The difference between these games that require strategy and chance is that the latter is entirely random. This means that you cannot do anything much to affect their general outcome. Any player who forgoes the chance to use a strategy while playing a skill-based game does not realize that they turn the game into one chance. One of the most popular games in this category is Slots. This is because to activate the game, all you need to do is press a button or pull a lever if you’re playing in a physical casino. Most games don’t generally offer you the chance to become a regular winner. You are bound to make a loss than a profit in most of them in the long term.

We will now look at some online casino games to have fun playing and make a profit.


This is a skill-based card game that is famous for having a low house edge. Most experienced players opt to play because it offers the chance to control each hand’s outcome by forming a strategy. For this reason, different strategies can assist you to decrease the house edge even lower while playing blackjack. This will assist you in making a profit in the long term. Most types offer a house edge that is lower than 1%. In this aspect, the blackjack switch is 1% of the most promising games. This is due to its extraordinary rules. It provides for a house edge of 0.17%. If you’re a newbie at blackjack, start by learning the basic strategy. You can then progress to using a card counting system once you master this strategy. Despite the widespread belief that skilled players can only use card counting systems, various systems are perfect for novice players.


Although predominantly regarded as a game of chance, one can learn ways to make better decisions for your wages by using a couple for betting systems. Thanks to this, it is possible to make a profit when enjoying this classic game. It is important to note that whatever betting system you choose, it needs to be suitable to your bankroll. Avoid negative progression betting systems as they will dent your bankroll.

Video poker

For most of the time, this game is viewed as one of chance because the machine that it is played on is similar looking to the one that plays slots. However, unlike a slots game, you can apply a strategy that will generally affect every hand’s outcome. Some adaptations of video poker are beneficial to players as they have a low house edge.

Every online casino that partners with leading software providers offer different variations of the classic online casino games. If you happen to be an adventurer player who is king in looking out for new ways to make their lives enjoyable, you should go ahead and try some of the popular played variations as they will give you the thrill you seek.

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The Poor Man’s Gold – 30% Gain in a Month Fri, 31 Jul 2020 17:17:56 +0000 It’s called the “poor man’s gold”. Yet, there’s nothing poor about silver’s performance this month, as it holds the crown for commodity returns in July.

On track to finish the month with a historic 30% gain in price—its biggest monthly increase in 40 years—silver is having what Philip Streible, Chief Market Strategist at Blue Line Futures, calls “the best of both worlds”—piggy-backing gold as a safe haven, while also soaring thanks to demand as an industrial metal.

It has been an incredible ride for silver, which fell towards 12-year lows, around $11.645 an ounce in March, as most commodities seized up during the height of the coronavirus crisis. Then, as gold took off thanks to the firepower of the stimulus unleashed by the Federal Reserve and other global central banks, silver latched on for the ride.

“People were originally playing gold for safety, and gold and the dollar were trading together,” said Streible.

When equities were up, gold would go down and the same thing with the dollar. And then the Fed got really aggressive in providing any kind of aid for any kind of business, and that’s when precious metals broke away and the dollar fell to a two-year low and free-fall mode.

Chart of silver

Silver’s gain in July, the biggest since September 1980, makes it the top-performing commodity in July, with US lumber futures a close second, while the laggards are predominantly grains—rice, oats and corn—along with gasoline, which is down by 4% and crude oil, which has lost 1% in value, despite huge coordinated production cuts by major exporters.

While gold can act as an inflation hedge, silver offered a lot more, said Streible.

On the industrial side of things, one part of silver creates seven kinds of industries, from power generation to mining, trucking, metal refining, storage, product making and retailing.  And if Vice President Biden gets to the White House, he wants to do this kind of Euro-style vehicle emissions, and wants to fight climate change with lots of solar power, wind power, all types of things that require silver.

“Won’t Blink An Eye” If Silver Gets To $50

A “realistic, inflation-adjusted” price for silver would be $30 an ounce, Streible said.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if (silver) finished the year at $30,” he said, after the price hit an eight-year high of $26.28 an ounce this week. “I wouldn’t even blink an eye if it got to $40 or $50, given its relative undervalue to gold.”

Streible said the only way that either silver or gold would get “sucker-punched” was if a safe, working vaccine was delivered to the market tomorrow. He said:

That could take silver back to the $16-$18 range.

But you’ll need more than the vaccine. You’ll also need the Fed to unwind its lending programs and that’s not going to happen overnight. Even with the Fed on de-stimulus mode, gold will probably go back to around $1,750 to $1,800 for a start. The bears may not get the precious metals meltdown that they want.

Christopher Lewis, an independent metals analyst who blogs at FX Empire, says it’s just not worth standing before the freight train that is the silver rally:

“Quite frankly, this is a market that you should never consider selling, at least not anytime soon and considering that the Federal Reserve is looking to liquefy the markets going forward, it is a bit difficult to understand how somebody will think shorting silver is a good idea.”

“I think at this point the Federal Reserve will continue to add liquidity to the markets, driving down the value of the US dollar. That in turn drives up the value of precious metals and I think that is essentially what we are looking at here.”

Silver bulls got a bit of a scare on Thursday, as the price fell by almost 4%, caught up in a broad push lower across the commodities complex that swept even gold lower, albeit by a modest 0.6% But the downdraft barely lasted one session.

On Friday, silver was already up by nearly 4% on the day, while gold finally touched the magical $2,000-an-ounce mark for the first time in history. Even then, it has still not kept pace with silver’s gains so far this month. Gold has risen by almost 11%, its largest monthly increase since January 2012. Lewis said:

Longer-term, I think that the silver markets (will) go much higher, but we may need to cool off a bit in order to attract more value oriented traders. I have no interest in shorting this market, regardless of what it does next. At the very least we need to consolidate a bit before picking up the pace again. Longer-term, silver is going to go much higher.

Declines Bought Up Quickly

He said any decline in silver was likely to be bought up quickly.

“It will probably fall rather hard at one point or another, but ultimately, we should see the buyers takeover. I think looking for dips makes the most sense and I would be especially interested near the $22 level. The $20 level underneath should continue to be very supportive, and if we would somehow get down there it is likely that we could find plenty of buying pressure.”

Eli Tesfaye, precious metals strategist at RJO Futures, agrees:

Any pullback in silver is seen as an opportunity to buy rather than sell, in my view … Highs are not in yet in my view.

The gold/silver ratio is still below the 10-year average of 85.30. The trend is your friend.

The gold:silver ratio is calculated by dividing the price of gold by that of silver. On Friday, the ratio was at 1:81, meaning it currently costs 81 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. The ratio hit a record high of nearly 1:127 in mid-March, when gold was at around $1,704 versus silver’s 11-year low at $11.65. The measure has, otherwise, averaged 1:56 for decades.

“The silver ratio to gold is still way above what it should be,” Streible said. “It should go back to the average of around 1:60. I expect silver to continue outperforming gold on a relative basis.”

Authored by Barani Krishnan @

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S&P Futures Falls, European Markets Tumble After German GDP Crashes Thu, 30 Jul 2020 12:26:09 +0000 S&P futures tumbled, European stocks slumped to a three week low, 10Y Treasury yields dropped near all time lows (where the 5Y already was at 0.2374%, the lowest yield on record), and the EUR slid from near a 22-month high after the market reassessed that Powell’s message could have been even more dovish, and as German GDP crashed the most on record, alongside a surge in Covid-19 cases. Meanwhile, today’s US GDP report is expected to show shortly that the US economy contracted by a record 34.5%. The dollar strengthened against most Group-of-10 peers, with Scandinavian currencies leading losses.

S&P Futures today

German GDP contracted by 10.1% Q/Q in the second quarter of 2020, the biggest drop on record and worse than the 9% expected drop. The good news: this print is consistent with a relatively fast rebound of both the industrial and services sectors through May and June. That said, the below-consensus performance of Germany points to downside risks to consensus expectations for the Euro area Q2 release published tomorrow. It also means that the narrative of a faster European recovery than the US has just come to a screeching halt.

German GDP Falls

In US pre-market trading, UPS jumped on a surge in delivery demand during the pandemic. Qualcomm jumped 11.5% after forecasting fourth-quarter revenue largely above expectations, powered by sales of its chips used in 5G devices and reaching a settlement with Huawei Technologies Co Ltd. Eastman Kodak extended yesterday’s 319% surge from winning a government loan to assist in the production of a coronavirus treatment.

European stocks tumbled as much as 1.7%, dropping to the lowest since July 1, as the prospects for stimulus is weighed against the quickening spread of the coronavirus. Among the biggest decliners, SAP fell 2.6%, HSBC loses 3.4%, Allianz retreats 3.6%. Danone was down 5.6% after sales fell more than expected last quarter, dragged down by its water business. Lloyds Banking Group Plc slumped as much as 9% after profit was wiped out by bad loans charges.  Volkswagen tumbled 5.6% after posting 2Q figures that included what MainFirst called a “clear miss” at the heavy- trucks division and worse-than-expected performance at some car brands.

Stoxx 600

“A vacuum on EU positive news could now be in store as the recovery fund ratification process begins” and European equities start to struggle, Dankse Bank strategists write in a note. Meanwhile, Germany’s covid infection rate remains above the threshold of 1.0, and recorded the highest number of new cases in around six weeks.

Asian stocks also fell, wiping out earlier gains, with shares in Japan and China under pressure even as the Kospi stayed modestly firmer following upbeat Samsung outlook. The drop was led by finance and utilities; markets in the region were mixed, with Singapore’s Straits Times Index and Thailand’s SET falling, and Taiwan’s Taiex Index and Jakarta Composite rising. The Topix declined 0.6%, with Gurunavi and Kushikatsu Tanaka falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index reversed Wednesday’s rally and retreated 0.2%, with Hangzhou Electronic Soul Network and Shanghai Material Trading posting the biggest slides.

“Markets are nearing their limits without further stimulus and a much stronger recovery,” said Andrew McCaffery, the global CIO of asset management at Fidelity International, citing the failure to get the outbreak under control in some countries. “The third quarter is likely to be much more challenging and markets could see renewed volatility.”

While markets are bracing for a slew of earnings from the tech giants, they will also get economic data that’s will show the biggest contraction in U.S. GDP on record. Thursday marks the first time the four of the biggest U.S. tech companies — Apple,, Alphabet and Facebook — will post financial results on the same day, with expectations running high as their valuations soared over the past three months. Shares of the companies, which have a combined market value of about $5 trillion, fell between 0.6% and 0.9% premarket. On Wednesday, the CEOs of the four companies took jabs from lawmakers for antitrust issues.

Tonight could be a pivot for markets with four of the big tech companies reporting earnings,” said Berndt Maisch, a senior portfolio manager at Tresides Asset Management. “Their stocks are so super expensive and hence offer very little room for any disappointment. Should they miss the high expectations that could lead to a significant market shake up. We can already see that nervousness within European markets today.”

While signs of a pickup in activity have fueled a stellar rally in U.S. stocks, the momentum of economic has slowed recently amid a resurgence in new infections, especially in southern and western U.S. states, leading to a pause in reopening plans. The S&P 500 is about 4% below its Feb. 19 record high after coming within 3% of that level last week. The backward looking GDP print is due at 8:30 a.m. ET when we will also get the Labor Department’s latest jobless claims data which is expected to show another ominous an uptick in newly fired workers.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve acknowledged the surge in COVID-19 cases is likely stalling economic recovery. The central bank also pledged to support the economy as long as necessary, lifting Wall Street’s three main indexes at the end of the session. Also dampening the mood was a deadlock in negotiations in the U.S. Congress over a pandemic relief plan, before a $600-per-week unemployment benefit lapses on Friday.

In FX, the dollar reversed Wednesday’s losses and climbed from the lowest since September 2018 as rising coronavirus cases worldwide supported demand for haven assets; the euro retreated against the dollar from the high it touched on Wednesday after news that Germany’s economy fell the most since records began in the second quarter.  Investors sought refuge in the greenback after nations from Australia to Vietnam reported a fresh spike in infections and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of the most severe economic downturn “in our lifetime.”

Among the G-10, the Norwegian krone saw the biggest losses, making it this year’s worst performer; it was followed by the krona and kiwi, which also extended declines versus the Aussie as data showed a further drop in New Zealand’s consumer confidence. Sterling snapped a nine-day rally against the dollar, yet outperformed the euro.

The Australian dollar slipped as leveraged funds initiated short positions after Victoria state registered a record number of cases, according to a trader. The yen halted a five-day gain as traders weighed Japan’s tally of infections which rose to an all-time high.

“The virus story is shifting away from being just a U.S. story with now many hot spots around the globe,” said Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. “The dollar’s decline is starting to look stretched, particularly if more containment measures are reintroduced in other parts of the world”

In rates, two-year Treasury yields are two basis points away from falling below the record set in May and the 5-year yield fell to a record low 0.2374%. The US Treasury curve bull-flattened, extending a move that followed Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and anticipating month-end index-extension flows Friday that may further support long end. U.S yields were lower by 1bp to 3bp across the curve with long-end- led gains flattening 2s10s by ~1bp, 5s30s by ~2bp; 10-year yields around 0.555%, richer by 2bp vs Wednesday’s close and within 2bp of its record low close on March 9.  German bonds rallied on demand for the safety of sovereign debt, driving benchmark yields to a two-month low and widening the differential with Italian equivalents.

In commodities, gold fell for the first time in 10 days as the dollar rebounded.

Looking at the day ahead, the focus for data will be the advanced Q2 GDP reading for the US which is expected to show an annualized contraction of -34.5% qoq. Other data includes weekly jobless claims while in Europe we’ve got preliminary July CPI and Q2 GDP in Germany. As highlighted earlier, expect earnings to be a big focus with Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook and Apple reporting along with Nestle, P&G, Shell, MasterCard, Total, ABInBev and Volkswagen.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.9% to 3,222.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 364.50
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to -0.525%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.1754
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 0.866%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 0.332%
  • Brent futures down 1.4% to $43.12/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.8% to $1,955.55
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 93.61
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 166.87
  • MXAPJ down 0.01% to 553.40
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 22,339.23
  • Topix down 0.6% to 1,539.47
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 24,710.59
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,286.82
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 37,915.38
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 6,051.08
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 2,267.01

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Germany’s economy plunged into a record slump in the second quarter, when virus restrictions slammed businesses and households across Europe, destroying jobs and prompting an unprecedented policy response
  • Germany also reported the highest number of new coronavirus cases in about six weeks. In the U.K., almost 10,000 people have been given an experimental Covid-19 vaccine, a key step toward finding a shot that will help control the pandemic
  • Hong Kong’s government barred 12 pro-democracy activists including Joshua Wong from running in September elections
  • The early signs are that bond investors agree with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the coronavirus still warrants extreme caution from policy makers

Asian equity markets were mostly kept afloat as the region took advantage of the post-FOMC tailwinds from Wall Street and as focus was centred on a deluge of earnings releases. ASX 200 (+0.7%) was led by outperformance in the tech sector and with mining names underpinned by Rio Tinto earnings. Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) also began positively although gains were later reversed amid recent currency strength and after Retail Sales Y/Y topped estimates but remained in contractionary territory. Furthermore, notable movers have been driven by corporate updates with Nomura Holdings the biggest gainer, while Isetan Mitsukoshi, TEPCO and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group are at the other side of the spectrum on dismal results. KOSPI (+0.3%) began the session on the front foot to print its best level since October 2018 after encouraging earnings from Samsung Electronics although some of the gains were later pared after shares of the tech and index behemoth stalled around the KRW 60,000 level. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) were varied with indecision seen in the mainland following the prior day’s outperformance and after the PBoC opted for a neutral position in its latest liquidity operations. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued amid the flimsy sentiment in Tokyo and mostly weaker results at the 2yr JGB auction.

Top Asian News

  • Herd Immunity May Be Developing in Mumbai’s Poorest Areas
  • Thailand Sees 8.5% GDP Contraction as Virus Ravages Economy
  • Hong Kong’s Dollar Peg Is ‘Unassailable’, StanChart CEO Says

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -1.7%) trade lower across the board with selling pressure continuing to pick up throughout the session amid a backdrop of light macro newsflow and a particularly busy earnings slate. Despite selling pressure in equity index futures becoming more prominent throughout the session, equity-specific focus has largely been centred around individual pre-market earnings reports from a vast number of large-cap names from across the region. Sector-wise, auto names are a notable laggard amid earnings from Volkswagen (-5.7%) and Renault (-5.7%) with the former reporting a H1 loss of EUR 1.4bln (prev. profit of EUR 9.6bln) and the latter posting a EUR 7.4bln loss; Renault CEO noting that results have acted as a “disturbing wake up call”. For the banking sector, Lloyds (-7.4%) trade lower after posting a GBP 602mln loss (prev. profit of GBP 2.9bln), Standard Chartered (-3.6%) and BBVA (-7.9%) are also down on the day post-earnings, whilst some reprieve for the sector has been presented by Credit Suisse (+0.2) after the Co. posted a 24% increase in net income whilst also announcing some structural changes in its operations. Large-cap energy names Shell (-1.7%) and Total (+1.3%) have both come to market with Q2 earnings today in which the former posting a USD 16.8bln writedown on its assets and the latter managing to avoid entering the red after recording a net income figure of USD 126mln during the quarter. Elsewhere, AstraZeneca (+2.8%) are a notable outperformer after reporting an increase in H1 profits and revenues with performance boosted by new medicines with the Co. continuing to focus on developing a vaccine for COVID-19. Swiss heavyweight Nestle (+0.4%) are firmer this morning after H1 organic sales rose 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.3% despite the fallout from the pandemic. Airbus (+3.0%) are another outperformer post-earnings despite posting a H1 loss of EUR 1.9bln with the Co. vowing to stem its sizable cash outflows. AB InBev (+5.4%) sit near the top of the Stoxx 600 after Q2 sales figures exceeded expectations during the pandemic. To the downside, Casino (-15.8%) reside at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 after posting a drop in sales and trading profits

Top European News

  • Euronext Rejects Shorter Hours After Some Investors Resist
  • Lazard Banker Among Suspects in German Insider Trading Probe
  • BBVA’s Miss in Mexico Overshadows Quick Return to Profit
  • Casino Shares Collapse to 24-Year Low as 1H Seen as ‘A Disaster’

In FX, the Greenback continues to regroup after a knee-jerk slide in wake of the dovish/downbeat FOMC, as broad risk sentiment sours on heightened 2nd wave COVID-19 prompted by the latest daily updates showing increases in infections and deaths to new record levels in several cases. As such, the Buck has bounced across the board with the DXY pivoting 93.500 within 93.308-685 bounds compared to a low of 93.169 at one stage on Wednesday and now eyeing 2 top-tier US data points for near term direction (weekly initial claims and Q2 GDP) before remaining month end rebalancing kicks in.

  • AUD/NZD/CAD/NOK – No big surprise that the high beta, cyclical and commodity currencies have been hit hardest by renewed aversion and the mini or partial US Dollar revival, as the Aussie also laments another rise in virus cases in Victoria and retreats further nigh on 0.7200 peaks towards 0.7125, while the Kiwi fails to glean any lasting traction from improvements in ANZ business sentiment or an even bigger rebound in the outlook, with 0.6600 more tangible than 0.6700 that seemed reachable at one stage. Similarly, the Loonie has reversed sharply from multi-week highs around 1.3330 to sub-1.3400 against the backdrop of waning crude prices and the Norwegian Krona is back below 10.7000 vs the Euro even though the latter has unwound gains elsewhere.
  • EUR/SEK/CHF/JPY/GBP – All backing off amidst the downturn in risk appetite and Greenback recovery, with the single currency testing bids under 1.1750 having rallied just above 1.1800 late yesterday, but not quite far enough to probe the bottom end of a resistance zone stretching from 1.1815 to 1.1851 that includes a key Fib retracement (1.1822). However, the Swedish Crown has slipped through 10.3000 against the Euro in contrast to the Franc that is straddling 1.0750 and only handing back a portion of its gains vs the Buck between 0.9151-21 parameters in keeping with the safe-haven Yen that is holding a tight range either side of 105.00. Last, but not least, the Pound is actually confounding normal conventions, to a degree, and retaining sight of 1.3000, albeit capped ahead of Wednesday’s 1.3014 pinnacle and a chart hurdle just a few pips above (1.3018).
  • EM – General depreciation on overall risk factors, but the Rand also losing ground with GOLD, Rouble alongside Brent, Lira on a lack of Turkish reserves to arrest the slide and Mexican Peso ahead of Q2 GDP that is expected to extend the recessionary run to 5 quarters and by record margins.

In commodities, WTI and Brent are in the red this morning following the general downturn in sentiment this morning which features European & US equity bourses firmly in negative territory on the busiest earnings session of the season for both European & US Co’s. For crude explicitly there hasn’t been anything fundamentally new for the complex since yesterday’s EIAs and as such it is once again tracking sentiment generally. Albeit, we did see updates from Total and Shell this morning who both highlighted strong oil trading results for the quarter which acted to mitigate some of the declines from energy prices. Additionally, on the mid-term supply front Shell CEO Beurden noted that they will only be drilling 22 exploratory wells this year which is some way below the originally guided 77. Moving to metals, spot gold is subdued this morning as the USD continues to grind higher; although, the precious metal is still in proximity to the USD 1950/oz mark a level which it was in proximity to around this time yesterday as well. Separately, for the metal ING believe it surpassing the USD 2000/oz mark is just a matter of time and forecast prices to be at USD 2100/oz by year-end. Elsewhere of note for cobalt and key miners of the metal such as Glencore where Panasonic are to launch cobalt free Tesla batteries in 2-3 years and have reduced the amount of cobalt used to below 5%.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. -34.5%, prior -5.0%
  • Personal Consumption, est. -34.5%, prior -6.8%
  • Core PCE QoQ, est. -0.9%, prior 1.7%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 1.45m, prior 1.42m; Continuing Claims, est. 16.2m, prior 16.2m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 44.7

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As expected yesterday’s Fed meeting was fairly light on new information with the baton instead passed to the meeting in September. Indeed the only change to the statement was a reference to include the importance of the evolution of the virus for the economic outlook which was something that was reinforced by Powell during the press conference. Beyond that, Powell highlighted the need for further support, both from fiscal and monetary policy.

Our US economists, in their summary last night (see here), noted that Powell suggested the Committee aims to wrap up the policy review in the “near future” which is consistent with their expectation that the results will be released at the September meeting. The team continues to anticipate that the Fed will adopt an average inflation target when that occurs, and that ultimately they will commit to providing additional accommodation through outcome-based forward guidance and more aggressive balance sheet expansion. However, they also continue to believe that these tools could be insufficient, and that alternative tools, such as frontend yield curve control (YCC) or more active use of credit facilities, could prove necessary.

In terms of markets, the sun had been shining on risk assets going into the meeting and the lack of any new significant information did little to spoil the party with the S&P 500, NASDAQ and DOW eventually closing +1.24%, +1.35% and +0.61% respectively. Meanwhile, 10yr US Treasuries were mostly unchanged with yields dropping just -0.4bps to 0.576%. The USD continued its decline, falling -0.26%, for the 12th losing session of the last 14. Conversely Gold rose for the tenth session in a row, rising +0.63% to $1971/oz.

Away from the Fed the other event of note was the antitrust panel in front of Congress including the CEOs of the biggest tech companies in America. Though the industry leaders were met with varied criticism from both parties yesterday, Republicans took umbrage with Google and Facebook over alleged liberal bias, while the Democrats aimed their critique at the companies’ market power. Apple, Amazon, and Google saw questions from both sides over their use of consumer data, and whether they have an unfair advantage due to their place as gatekeepers to operating systems and environments.

Speaking of tech, it’s a big day for earnings in the sector with Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all set to report today. We’ll have to wait until tonight for the numbers however with the releases due after the close, although there’s no shortage of other companies reporting which should dictate the direction of travel with 62 S&P 500 companies reporting in all, while this morning in Europe we’re expecting numbers from Credit Suisse, Shell, Nestle, Total and Volkswagen amongst others. So expect a busy day of headlines.

In terms of the latest overnight, the Hang Seng (+1.05%), Kospi (+0.31%) and ASX (+0.72%) are all trading up while the Nikkei (-0.05%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.09%) are more or less unchanged. Meanwhile, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.12% while Gold has retraced -0.33%. In terms of earnings, Samsung reported quarterly net income of KRW 5.5tn, beating estimates of KRW 4.9tn while also providing a cautiously optimistic outlook, predicting that new smartphones and gaming consoles will boost demand for memory chips in the second half of the year. Shares are up slightly on the news. Elsewhere, Qualcomm also gave a strong sales forecast for the current quarter yesterday and announced a new licensing deal with China’s Huawei which has seen shares trade up as much as +12% in extended trading.

Back to yesterday, where unlike the US, European equities traded without any clear direction. The Stoxx 600 (-0.06%) ended in the red having passed between gains and losses a total of 15 times during the session with autos and chemicals the worst performing industries. The latter was partly due to BASF, the world’s biggest chemical company falling -4.24% after reporting a loss and painting a slightly bleak picture for Q3. Meanwhile, peripheral bonds tightened slightly to bunds with spreads on Italian and Spanish bonds -2.6bps and -1.8bps tighter respectively.

In other news, Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline penned a deal with the UK for as many as 60 million doses of their coronavirus vaccine, after having already agreed last week to buy 90 million doses of potential vaccines from the partnership of Pfizer and BioNTech. The US and other wealthier nations have taken similar steps in ensuring they are diversified among the top vaccine contenders as they seek to put the pandemic behind them.

On a related note, London Heathrow airport is aiming to have Covid-19 testing for arrivals by September if it can get government approval, with officials pushing that this would allow for more confidence amongst travelers and some respite for the battered airline industries. This comes even as the EU pulled back on plans to reopen the greater region to international travelers, citing the resurgence in global cases. Half a world away, Australia’s Queensland state announced they would be closing its borders to all visitors from Sydney from Saturday. Overnight, Australia’s Victoria state reported 723 new cases, a daily record, and Vietnam’s capital Hanoi further rolled back the reopening by halting public gatherings of more than 30 people. China added a further 105 cases while, India, Japan and Hong Kong also remain on a concerning trajectory. The Nikkei has reported this morning that the Tokyo government will ask restaurants and karaoke establishments to shorten operating hours by closing no later than 10pm JST due to a surge of coronavirus cases adding that the restriction will be in place form August 3 to August 31.

Meanwhile in the US, cases grew by 76,339 in the past 24 hours, higher than the recent observed growth of c. 60,000 per day. Overnight, Texas (418,995) has pipped New York (413,593) to become the third most infectious state in the US in terms of total infections recorded. Further, Texas (280), California (204) and Florida (216) all posted high and in some cases record fatalities in the past 24 hours, even as cases appear to be rolling over in the three most populous US states. Elsewhere in the US, Maryland issued a travel advisory for residents against going to hard hit states in the South, while New Jersey has followed New York City’s lead and paused reopening by keeping indoor dining and gyms closed.

Sticking with the US, Congress appears to be further apart than expected on a new round of fiscal stimulus spending. Last night leading Democrats and Republicans met just before the market closed in New York, but White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said the sides are nowhere close to a deal and that the extra $600 unemployment benefit is expected to expire. The base case remains that the sides will reach a compromise somewhere between the Senate and House bills, but the timeline is getting pushed further out.

Wrapping up, we did get some positive, albeit largely expected, fiscal news out of Europe. The Spanish government has extended the deadline for corporates to apply for loan guarantee schemes from the end of September to 1 December. Similarly, Austria’s government has agreed to extend its furlough program for an additional 6 months in to protect jobs as the economic impact of the virus is still felt in many industries.

Finally, in terms of the day ahead, the focus for data will be the advanced Q2 GDP reading for the US which is expected to show an annualized contraction of -34.5% qoq. Other data includes weekly jobless claims while in Europe we’ve got preliminary July CPI and Q2 GDP in Germany. As highlighted earlier, expect earnings to be a big focus with Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook and Apple reporting along with Nestle, P&G, Shell, MasterCard, Total, ABInBev and Volkswagen.

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The EU is Fixed, The U.S. Dollar is Fucked. Thu, 30 Jul 2020 11:56:04 +0000

Dyin’ ain’t much of a livin’, boy The Outlaw Josey Wales

The Davos Crowd is desperate. That much has been clear to me for months.

From the moment they tied COVID-19 to the breaking of the oil markets back in March they have worked like no other time in history to convince us the world we knew was gone.

The latest iteration of this big lie is the all-out assault on the U.S. dollar. Now for months a few analysts like me have been steadfast in reminding everyone that no matter how much money the U.S. prints in the short run, it is only doing so because of the extreme levels of latent and active dollar demand in the world.

So, there is narrative and there is reality. And reality is that today there is huge demand for the U.S. dollar regardless of what the headlines tell you.

That said, that doesn’t mean that demand doesn’t ebb and flow. And now that we’re on the other side of the first wave of this crisis period, marginal dollar hoarding has slacked off.

This is most evident in the dramatic rise in the euro back above $1.17 and the British pound breaking back to challenge $1.30. But in the grand scheme of things these are just relief rallies within primary bear markets.

EUR USD Quarterly chart

GBP USD Quarterly Chart

But in the past couple of weeks, coinciding nicely with a massive rally in the precious metals, there’s been a deluge of talk about the end of the dollar.

It’s easy to dismiss the perma-bears like Peter Schiff who has become a parody of himself at this point. But it’s not easy to dismiss it when all of a sudden Schiff is everywhere, taking the bait to be the guy who will tell everyone that the dollar is going to fail because, you know, money printing.

And, as an Austrian economist kinda guy, I agree with Peter, I just don’t agree that the dollar is going anywhere anytime soon.

It may gall him and other Austrians that the dollar can still be so thoroughly debased and still make up 62% of total foreign exchange reserves the world over or still dominate global trade (latest SWIFT Data).

Share of Chinese Yuan RMB in global trade and finance market

But with China keeping its capital account closed and the European Central Bank holding rates below zero destroying any possibility of anyone diversifying their capital reserves into euros, where else can the big pool of capital go at this point?

And just don’t tell me gold.

Because while I love gold, own gold, advocate for gold, gold cannot and will not resume a central place in our monetary system until the day the dollar fails.

And no one who matters right now really wants the dollar to fail. And that includes the villain-of-the-day, China.

But it’s not just guys like Schiff or Alistair McLeod who are calling the tune right now. They were joined this week by none other than members of the the International Monetary Fund , the mouthpiece of the Council on Foreign Relations and Goldman Sachs…

… but I repeat myself.

Goldman’s call is certainly reasonable, based on the idea that real interest rates have plummeted sending gold higher as the argument against holding it fails.

Chart of gold

But when you have this many big stories planted in the media at the same time just ahead of an FOMC meeting, something is up.

They have all now called into question the U.S.’s central role in the global economy. This is a concerted effort to push this narrative during a period of extreme dollar weakness. They have tied it to the extraordinary measures taken by the Fed and the U.S. Treasury dept. earlier this year and the likelihood of another massive stimulus bill and/or bailout package between now and the election.

And it’s not even that I disagree with them, because I don’t. I just don’t agree that 2020 is the Year the Dollar Failed, no matter how tempting that title is to write.

Because, as always, you have to ask yourself the questions, “Why this? Why Now?”

The answer to those questions, in my opinion, is simple. They are timing this with the fundamental change to the European Union via the EU’s bright new shiny budget and COVID-19 relief plans which were agreed upon by the EU Council last week.

It’s a simple enough narrative that also neatly coincides with everything else we’re being bombarded with daily. And it goes something like this.

The EU is Fixed, The U.S. is Fucked.

So given that gold and silver are the most manipulated markets on the planet doesn’t anyone think it’s strange that silver, of all assets, explodes more than $8 per ounce over a three-week period? Climaxing into the end of a delivery month on the COMEX?

Really? After nearly twenty years of watching the silver market I can tell you that when we see behavior this out of the ordinary it’s because the people who wag the tail of the market dog want it to happen not because they’ve lost the script.

But I digress.

Everywhere we look there is another instance of U.S. lawmakers fighting among themselves, like the fiasco hearing with Attorney General William Barr or the pathetic grandstanding over the size and scope of the next massive stimulus bill which will rob savers and future generations of even more wealth.

It’s Mayor Jenny Durkan in Seattle throwing out the Federal troops there while issuing orders to her police chief to not escalate the violence as the violence on the streets escalates.

It’s the relentless propaganda trying to create a ‘second wave’ of COVID-19 to scare us all into staying home, canceling elections, and screaming obscenities at people who won’t wear a useless mask.

Europeans will play soccer but the baseball games are cancelled because a few players tested positive for COVID-19.

Meanwhile in Europe, everything is fixed now that they’ve given the European Commission tax and spend powers they don’t legally have.

But Trump is shredding the Constitution by sending Federal troops to defend Federal property after 50+ days of rioting, looting and trying to set the Federal Courthouse on fire in Portland, Oregon.

Am I the only one who sees the game here?

A rising euro, a falling dollar, gold touching $2000, Merkel’s “Alexander Hamilton” moment, U.S. cities burning and the ones not on fire are under siege from his incompetence in handling the virus.

Economic depression mixed with incompetent leadership is supposed to lead you to lose faith in the currency of that government. That’s the big lie.

It’s like that scene in Minority Report where they find the guy who supposedly kidnapped Anderton’s son. There was a quote, “orgy of evidence.”

The sheer volume of it is supposed to make you believe a lie because how can you argue with such a vast array of evidence, right?

And in the curious case of the collapsing dollar I’m Tom Cruise. I’m not throwing the dollar out the window to its death. I’m calling bullshit and saying, “Nope I’m not buying what they are selling.”

I’ll buy that story in a couple of years but I won’t today.

Just like I’m not buying that I’ll die from the Corona-chan, that hydroxychloroquine and zinc won’t protect me from it or that the EU doesn’t have a whole lotta real work to do before anything in Europe can be reasonably described as ‘fixed.’

Look, not to be too blunt about it but the U.S. is approaching screwed in the long run. And that’s nothing but a shame because when I look around the world and I’m not seeing a whole lot of rule of law or even nods to constitutionally-protected individual rights.

When I talk with readers they uniformly weep for what’s happening in the U.S.

So, while we may be at a low ebb in this cycle, there’s still a way back from which doesn’t involve complete collapse. That choice has yet to be made.

Butt forces have been unleashed to make that choice for us, to destroy the United States and its most productive people, of that I have zero doubt. But not all forces are irresistible. Some objects are immovable and when your currency dominates 86% of all global trade that’s not something moving.

So, ignore the big lie of The Davos Crowd because when there’s this amount of pressure to manufacture a false reality it is more indicative of desperation than omnipotence.

And there’s a lot more distance along this road to travel.

Authored by Tom Luongo @

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How the Twitter Hack Impact Bitcoin’s Reputation Thu, 30 Jul 2020 11:19:25 +0000 Bitcoin remains the poster boy for cryptocurrency, with this token having blazed a trail for others to follow since its inception in 2007 and recently achieved a total market capitalization of $117.81 billion.

However, Bitcoin has also endured a chequered and controversial past, from its use on the Silk Road as a way of funding illicit purchases anonymously to its unwitting role in a large number of online scams.

In fact, Bitcoin was recently at the center of a high profile Twitter hack, which impacted on 373 users and saw the virtual theft of considerable cash sums. We’ll explore this further below, while asking whether or not it could actually be beneficial for the cryptocurrencies reputation?

The Hack – What do we Know so Far?

The recent scam targeted a host of high profile and widely followed Twitter issues, including Microsoft Corp co-founder and philanthropist Bill Gates, former US president Barack Obama and Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos (to name just three).

Even the presumptive Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden was targeted, with the well-orchestrated hack posting similar and timed tweets instructing people to send Bitcoins to an unknown cryptocurrency wallet.

More specifically, the tweets were sent from fake profiles that mirrored the targeted users, informing people that they would double all payments sent to the named Bitcoin address over the course of the next 30 minutes.

These are important details, as the scam was deliberately designed to run for a relatively short period of time and there was a clear incentive for trusting users to participate.

Of course, Twitter removed the tweets relatively quickly, minimizing the impact and financial loss experienced by users. It may also be tempting to frame this as purely a Bitcoin problem, but it’s arguably part of a wider issue that runs throughout the burgeoning cryptocurrency market.

To this end, crypto scams took more than $4 billion in 2019 alone, as tokens increase the cumulative market cap and force their way into the consumer mainstream.

In the case of Bitcoin specifically, this token has also been involved in some of the biggest scams to date, including the theft of $460 million from the Mt. Gox exchange platform in 2014.

Is This Good or Bad for Bitcoin?

The interesting point here is that Bitcoin won’t suffer adversely as a result of the scam, despite its chequered past and the fact that Twitter’s stock declined by approximately 4% in after-market trading according to Jeffery Halley from Oanda.

This reflects the fact that Bitcoin is an innocent party in the scams, as it’s merely used as an enticing vehicle through which to steal people’s hard-earned money. In this respect, it can be argued that Bitcoin’s reputation could improve as a result of such scams, and there are a couple of key reasons for this.

Firstly, it raises the profile of the currency further, while vindicating those who trade in the asset and boast a considerable holding.

Secondly, it also highlights the fact that committing a crime or scam with Bitcoin is actually a ridiculous idea, with the underlying blockchain technology driving total transparency and creating an auditable ledger that cannot be altered by a central or governing authority.

If we consider the recent Twitter scam and similar incidents from this perspective, they arguably serve as a form of organic marketing for Bitcoin and established cryptocurrencies with the largest market caps.

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Bitcoin CME Gaps – Why Are BTC CME Gaps Important? Wed, 29 Jul 2020 21:32:32 +0000 Bitcoin CME gaps have been a prevalent topic of interest for many investors over the last few years. Why? Because many use them as price indicators to predict future movements.

Back in 2017, Bitcoin reached nearly $20,000 in a parabolic rally, which caught the attention of the world. Not only investors were interested in it, though, as so were other major institutional players in the world of trading.

Approximately at that time, two new Chicago based brokers launched for Bitcoin futures — allowing contracts to be cash-settled against the USD. The first came on behalf of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the second from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).

While the discussion has certainly died down a lot over the last few months as they paint a rather grim future, which many deny due to wishful thinking on their investments, it’s important to understand how they work, and why they are used as market indicators.

What are CME Gaps?

A gap is an unfilled space or interval on a chart, caused by sharp movement in either direction. In an upward trend, a gap is produced when the highest price of one candle is lower than the lowest price of the following candle. Conversely, in a downward trend, a gap occurs when the lowest price of any candle is higher than the highest price of the next candle.

CME gaps only open when Bitcoin moves while the CME Bitcoin futures market is closed during after market hours. This is why we commonly see gaps form during the weekends.

A study found that CME gaps have a 95% of being filled. Historically, every gap has eventually been filled over time. There is generally only a few open at a time, and when they are open, it can indicate the next direction of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin CME Gaps can be viewed on the CME Futures Chart (!BTC)

Bitcoin CME Gaps

Can Traders Benefit From Bitcoin Price Gaps?

When looking at these gaps, one might conclude that they will be filled quickly within the next few days. Some traders are even relying on this as a strategy to incorporate when analyzing the charts. However, this could be quite a dangerous endeavor, if not executed properly.

Within the traditional market, it could be more transparent. For example, some traders might be buying a stock in the after-hours’ trading if the company releases a positive earnings report, and they expect a price increase. But since Bitcoin doesn’t stop trading on other exchanges, this could be trickier in the cryptocurrency world.

From a technical point, when a significant gap appears, it removes the immediate support or resistance, and the gap is more likely to fill.

Other gaps’ general rules of thumb might include:

  • The trade should be in the overall direction of the price on a higher timeframe (at least 4h).
  • The price should retrace to the original resistance level. This indicates that the gap is filled, and the price returns to prior resistance turned support.
  • The risk management should be symmetrical — 1:1, since almost all gaps close

CME Gaps Currently Open in the Market

Bitcoin CME Gaps Currently Open in the Market

As of writing this (July 28), the price has broken resistance and is now moving towards the highest CME gap ($11,700).

Bitcoin CME Gap of 11800

Once this gap is filled, we will have a few more gaps to fill in lower ranges. Many traders are speculating about a bull run, although my 2020 sentiment is contrary to this for numerous reasons, one being the unfilled CME gaps.

I believe we will be correcting and filling these gaps before a bull run. People often underestimate Wall Streets control on the markets. If it isn’t already clear, every top/bottom in the last three years has been direct result from futures going live/offline.

If we look at the lowest CME gap, which was formed in 2019 at $3500~, it could mean another big crash in the markets.

CME Gaps — Bitcoin Price Prediction

CME Gaps — Bitcoin Price Prediction

The most sought after question regarding Bitcoin CME gaps is what exactly do they predict for the future of BTC.

Considering all gaps are now lower than the current price, it signals that Bitcoin will have a large reversal sometime later this year.

Bitcoin fear and greed index

There is lots of greed in the markets right now, as we’re ranging around the highest gap. Once filled, we could obviously go slightly higher, although the chances for a reversal are much higher.

In my opinion, there is a 99% we revisit sub $10,000 this year. We will likely go much further. As said earlier, the lowest gap is at $3,500.

I’m sure there will be some future catalyst that we don’t know about yet to produce this drop, although I’ve been accumulating large amounts of shorts for this eventual drop below 2019, and 2020 lows.

At the end of the day, there is no definitive proof that we will drop to these ranges. This is all speculation.

Authored by CryptoWhale @

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Why Bitcoin & Cryptocurrencies Fluctuate in Price Thu, 16 Jul 2020 12:37:02 +0000 The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility. Anyone following bitcoin since its inception will know that its price has dropped and also risen dramatically over the years. Although, with hindsight, we can see that there has been an overall steep upward trend, short-term fluctuations have seen many crashes along the way.

There are now many different cryptocurrencies, and all of them experience volatility to a greater or lesser extent. Below are some of the reasons why this is the case.

Supply and demand

Like any asset or commodity, scarcity affects value. The less of something there is available on the market, the more it is generally worth. Many cryptocurrencies exist in a strictly limited amount, with a cap on how many will ever be produced. In theory, the closer to that cap the existing supply gets, so the value should increase. Bitcoin, for instance, is capped at 21 million coins, and 18 million have already been mined. In contrast, ripple XRP has been pre-mined at 100 billion, of which 45 billion are in circulation, which is one of the reasons why it is worth far less.

Other  markets

Cryptocurrencies are presented as an alternative to traditional or fiat currencies, and so their value may rise or fall according to financial and economic uncertainty elsewhere. Worries about inflation or devaluation in the dollar or euro can lead people to invest in crypto instead. That might involve short-term crypto trading in the hope of a quick profit or be seen as a longer-term investment.

News stories

News relating to cryptocurrencies can have an immediate effect on their value, as people rush to either buy or sell said currency in response. When ICOs were banned in China in 2017, the price of bitcoin fell from $5000 to $3000 as a result. If the news doesn’t have much widespread, long-lasting significance, the reaction may be brief and, or, localized. When celebrities or major companies are reported as investing in crypto, it can spark a flurry of interest. Still, the stories don’t always make much difference in the long term (except as part of a wider trend).


The legal status of a cryptocurrency can affect its value. Sensible regulation can increase its worth as it encourages new investors and inspires confidence. Equally, however, too much red tape can have a negative effect, as the currency becomes more challenging to trade.

Utility and purpose

In an overcrowded market, a cryptocurrency with a clear and practical application will generally be worth more than just another digital coin. A unique selling point helps any product, and cryptocurrencies designed for a particular purpose may do better than less well-considered ones. Similarly, if a cryptocurrency is widely traded and accepted for everyday transactions, it will likely become more popular than one with limited use.


More than any other currency, crypto is linked to advancing technology. The development of new platforms, applications and security measures will increase demand, while the discovery of weaknesses in the system that leave a coin vulnerable to hacking, or the closure of exchanges, will harm its adoption.

Any of these factors can affect the price of a cryptocurrency. In reality, it is generally a combination of causes that leads to volatility. It should also be remembered that volatility is not necessarily a bad thing, and it is the quality that allows traders to make significant profits. Learning to navigate the markets and read the signs is the key to successful crypto trading.

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How to buy Binance Coin Fri, 10 Jul 2020 09:58:19 +0000 Cryptocurrencies are once again entering the spotlight. Many of the previously popular coins no longer exist. Other coins have grown to massive popularity in a rather short time.

One of those coins is Binance’s official cryptocurrency, BNB. Created by Changpeng Zhao in 2017, BNB has become one of the strongest coins in the market, with many different use cases.

In this article, we will briefly explain the steps you need to take to buy Binance Coin in the safest and most reliable way. So let’s get started.

Different ways to buy BNB

Since BNB is an exchange-based token, you can get it primarily through Binance exchange. Sounds pretty simple – just create an account, and make a purchase.

While this is certainly the simplest way to get BNB, it is not the safest. When storing cryptocurrencies on an exchange, the coins are never fully in your possession. The exchange they are stored on, in this case Binance, is able to control, and even confiscate your funds.

So what is the best way to go about this? To ensure that you are in full control of your funds, you are better off using an exchange platform that sends BNB directly to your personal wallet. So, before we get into the specifics, you will need to create a wallet.

Creating a BNB wallet

Start by creating a wallet from Binance’s most trusted source: Trust wallet. Not only is Trust wallet acquired by Binance, but the two are working closely together to simplify crypto transactions as much as possible. So, if you are a beginner, you will be able to setup your wallet easily.

If you rather want to explore your options, or don’t like the idea of a mobile wallet, there are more options to choose from:

  • If you want to buy a large amount of BNB and need the best possible security for your funds, consider using a hardware wallet. These physical devices that look like USB sticks can store more than 2000 cryptocurrencies offline, and integrate with popular online wallet options. While they come at a cost of $70-$200, they are certainly worth the price. We recommends using Ledger Nano S or Trezor model T.
  • On the other hand, if you prefer to deal with cryptocurrency from the comfort of your PC, you might want to download a desktop wallet. Our favorite option is Guarda wallet. Not only does this wallet support multiple cryptocurrencies but it also offers a non-custodial solution and a strong support team that is available at all times.

How to buy Binance Coin

Once your BNB wallet is created, you can go ahead and start your transaction.

Step 1: Create an account on Paybis

Create an account on Paybis

Sign up on and get ready to start a transaction. All new users of the platform qualify for one commission-free order when paying with their credit or debit card.

Step 2: Start a new transaction

Sign up on

On the dashboard, you can select your trading pair and start a new transaction.

  • Indicate how you want to pay by selecting one of the options of the drop-down menu on the left. We selected “Credit/Debit Card” to skip the fees.
  • Select your payout option from the drop-down menu on the right. In this case, we will select BNB.
  • Next, enter the amount you want to spend under the designated box.
  • Finally, click on “Buy BNB” to proceed with your order.

Step 3: ID verification

When you start a new transaction, you will need to pass a basic ID verification. This process takes less than 5 minutes to complete and requires some of your personal information.

ID verification on Paybis exchange

Start by entering your full name, and your date of birth. Once that is done, click on “Continue”.

Location and address for ID verification on Paybis exchange

Next, enter your country, province, and residential address. Once added, click on “Continue” once again.

Upload ID verification on Paybis exchange

Finally, select your preferred document type and upload a copy in good quality. When the file is uploaded, click on “Submit” to conclude the process.

Once your information is submitted, the team of Paybis will instantly perform a review and let you know if you can continue to the payment phase. The waiting time should not be longer than 2-3 minutes.

Step 4: Complete the payment

Once the team of Paybis completes the review, you will know if you are able to proceed. If so, enter your BNB wallet address and continue to the final stage – the payment.

Simply follow the instructions on your screen and complete the payment. The process looks slightly different depending on your payment method, but is overall easy to follow, even if you are a total beginner.

5th Step: Receive BNB

In just a few minutes, Paybis will receive your payment and deliver your BNB to the previously indicated wallet. The whole transaction shouldn’t take more that a few minutes to complete.

And that’s it, you now know how to buy BNB in the safest and most reliable way!

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BlockFi: Loans Backed by Crypto Wed, 08 Jul 2020 17:40:13 +0000 At the moment, cryptocurrency investors can do very few things with their crypto assets. BlockFi is helping to change that offering loans with cryptocurrencies as collateral. This opens multiple opportunities for investors, but it still carries some risks.

What Is BlockFi and How Does It Work?

BlockFi is a New York based company that specializes in crypto lending. Simply put, the company offers loans with cryptocurrency as collateral. Therefore, as long as you have crypto, you can take up to 50% of its value in cash.

The loans are simple and straightforward. However, you need to understand that this definitely isn’t the cheapest type of financing available.

The minimum amount of a BlockFi loan is $5,000. This means that you must have at least $10,000 worth of crypto to use as collateral in order to get it. There is also an origination fee of 2% and interest rates that range from 4.5% to 9.75%.

You only need to pay interest on this loan for a year and then you can repay the body of the loan in a single lump sum. You can also refinance it at the end of the year. However, this will be quite costly.

Please note that these cryptocurrency-backed loans have several unique features:

  • The maximum LTV (loan to value) is 50%.
  • If the value of your crypto collateral falls below those 50% due to its volatility, you must offer more collateral or repay the loan.
  • In the aforementioned situation, the loan must be repaid in full within 72 hours.

Are BlockFi Services Safe to Use for Startups During the COVID-19 Crisis?

Nothing is without risk in business, especially now that the world is descending into a global economic recession. The coronavirus crisis brought volatility to financial and stock markets, as well as crypto. One only needs to take a look at bitcoin price to see how unstable it is. Many holders of this and other popular cryptocurrencies consider selling because of all the uncertainty.

However, selling crypto right now can be a huge mistake. This exact volatility, as well as the drastic growth of digital payments use, might elevate cryptocurrencies to a new status. There is now a real chance that crypto will get close to fiat currencies in status. There is even some talk that the USD might fall as the global reserve currency and be replaced by a cryptocurrency.

Those things are but rumors and suppositions now. But even they are enough to show that getting rid of your crypto isn’t the best move. And BlockFi enables you to retain these assets yet get some liquidity anyway. From this point of view, BlockFi loans are definitely safer than selling.

Other Risks Involved in BlockFi Loans and How to Deal with Them

Of course, BlockFi loans are subject to the same risks as all other loans. With this particular type of lending you need to accept the fact that should your chosen crypto crash, you might default on the loan. However, this type of risk is unavoidable when dealing with cryptocurrency assets by default. This inherent volatility is also the reason why crypto might boost your fortune overnight.

There is also the matter of interest rates. They aren’t low, although BlockFi offers some of the lowest rates on the market. Note that standard payments are interest-only and there is a loan renewal option. These increase the risk of getting caught up and accumulating a huge debt.

You should be able to avoid this type of problems by developing a smart loan repayment schedule. Also, you should set up an emergency fund or create some other plan to pay off your loan fast. This way, you will be able to protect yourself in case the volatility turns against you.

Due to the clause about repaying the loan within 72 hours in case of the crypto crashing, it’s essential to keep some of your crypto assets in reserve. Think about this before you take out a loan so you are prepared for everything.

If you don’t have enough crypto on hand, start building up an emergency fund of cash immediately. BlockFi now offers a way for customers to purchase cryptocurrency directly from the company via a wire transfer. At this particular time, when volatility is high, this service allows you a great opportunity.

Another thing to keep in mind is that BlockFi is a startup in an unregulated industry. This entire niche is rather new and therefore murky. The company has shown itself to be trustworthy so far and has rather positive reviews.

A Word of Caution on Alternative Lending

Many types of alternative lending are available now, and BlockFi loans are one of them. This type of financing plays an essential part in the economy, especially during a crisis. The coronavirus recession brought the global lending industry to a halt. It’s nearly impossible to get a traditional loan today, unless it’s part of a program like the PPP. Therefore, alternative financing is the only solution for many businesses.

However, you must never forget the dangers of these loans. Not all of them are equally risky, but all of them are rather poorly regulated. This leaves a lot of room for corruption and scams. And because of the lack of regulation, you have little chance to defending your rights in court.

The most dangerous of alternative lending types is payday loans. They are outright predatory. The fees are so high, you might end up paying the loan amount twice over because of them. They also have extremely unfavorable terms. For example, the lender might charge an early repayment fee or forbid early payments altogether. Therefore, you will have no choice but to pay out exorbitant interest rates in full.

BlockFi loans are, thankfully, not like that. You can pay off this loan early and interest on it isn’t insurmountable. However, it’s still imperative to develop a repayment plan before you actually apply for the loan. This might make you reduce your ambitions about the amount of money you should take.

Never forget that being realistic is imperative if you want to avoid being swallowed by debt during a volatile recession.

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The Global Economy is Going to Change Forever Fri, 26 Jun 2020 17:58:24 +0000 For years now, governments around the world have been printing excessive amounts of money in order to encourage lending and investments. This is known as Quantitive Easing, and it began in 2008, following the financial crisis that had tremors around the world.

Money is the root of all evil

While inequality, and poverty subsist across much of the globe, wall-street is focused on other things. Lining their pockets with your money.

It’s not news that Wall-street bankers, analysts, and dealers are some of the most greedy people in the world, but on a broader scale, we must consider the implications of their century long greed. With QE, and consistent lobbying to different governments, they’ve managed to create one of the longest bull runs in U.S History. In October 2019, the record was broken. The U.S had officially passed 10 years, without ever seeing a recession.

In economics, Business cycles show that recession are a natural occurrence, and while the economy has been rapidly growing at rates unseen before in modern history as new companies pop up each day, and attract global investments, we cannot ignore the many red flags that have also popped up over the years.

Phases of Business Cycle

The UBS report in 2019 found that nearly 44% of American Consumers claimed their incomes didn’t cover expenses. In addition, 40% said they had a problem getting a credit card or applying for a student loan default, up 3% from last year.

“Credit trends in US consumer markets are more worrisome, particularly in unsecured loan markets as the lower-tier consumer comes under further pressure with lending standards tightening, delinquencies rising, and interest rates near peak levels, “ wrote Matthew Mish of UBS in the report.

This is very concerning to the economy, and many economists have begun scaling back their estimated growth for US GDP.

The Hidden Costs of Corona Virus

In a paper published in 2008, Kate Jones, professor of ecology and biodiversity at University College London, says that her team’s research “supports previous hypotheses that the Corona Virus emergence is largely a product of anthropogenic and demographic changes, and is a hidden ‘cost’ of human economic development”.

Today, such warnings are mostly being drowned out by those trying to predict whether the trillions of dollars being pumped by central banks and governments into their economies to prevent them from falling into a deep recession — most commonly defined as at least two consecutive quarters of economic contraction — will be enough to restore GDP growth to its upward path.

Or by others trying to figure out whether the crash in stock and commodity prices since last month has further to go, or if now is the time for investors to start buying such assets again on the cheap.

But there is a growing awareness among economists that alternatives to GDP growth need to be seriously considered, not just because of the effect it has on the environment but also because of its impact on social inequality, which has widened to near-historic levels in recent years, and in turn led to a return to the kinds of political polarisation not seen in nearly a century.

Trade War

During 1947–1991, the USA and Russia were in difficult geopolitical tensions that resulted in a strong battle for power. Nearly 40 years later, a new cold war brews. This time around, it’s between the United States, and China, Two of the top countries in the world, in terms of military strength, economic performance, and overall global influence.

A huge portion of North American goods are imported by foreign countries. China was ranked the number 1 supplier for US goods in 2018, which totalled to over $550 billion dollars. This massive amount of imports has strengthened China’s significantly. They have become the fastest growing economy in the world — doubling in a few years, and on track to surpass the US.

US President Donald Trump has long accused China of unfair trading practices and intellectual property theft. Meanwhile in China, there is a perception that America is trying to curb its rise as a global economic power.

The trade war has no end in sight, and with the continued tariffs each country is adding, they may both be negatively impacted through their rivalry.

Global Conflicts Rising Quickly

A book that I read, and highly recommend is ‘Watchman’s Rattle: Thinking Our Way Out of Extinction’ which primarily dives into answering the question surrounding why we can’t solve problems anymore. Why do threats such as the Gulf oil spill, worldwide recession, terrorism, and global warming suddenly seem unstoppable?

We’ve seen the fall of dozens of massive empires that were once seen has unstoppable forces, although this book dives into picking apart each aspect of why they eventually collapsed. We’re currently living in the height of economic performance, although many analysts, including myself, are theorizing on a sort of ‘bottleneck’ that will eventually result in massive changes throughout the global in terms of how money works, political structures, financial systems, and even legislatures.



Most people who learn about crypto are quickly intrigued by the idea. The cryptocurrency markets are still relatively young, and many investors are optimistic about the future it holds.

Bitcoin was created shortly after the 2008 recession as the threat of hyper-inflation, greed, among many other things, were becoming increasingly clear.

My personal opinion regarding cryptocurrencies is that we must not forget the speculative nature of it. Investors who have done lots of research into the economics of how bubbles work, will quickly see how Bitcoin was certainly in one shortly after 2017.

Cryptocurrency assets are heavily manipulated, and anyone in this space knows this by now. Notice how the 2017 Top at $20,000 laid on the exact day the CME futures were launched. Instead of the anticipated ‘buying’ from Wallstreet, they shorted it, and made billions.


It’s important to be exposed to Cryptocurrencies (and Gold), especially during such a pivotal moment in history.

During extreme drops (and alignment with my market calls), one would be doing themselves a favour by buying the dip in the future.

A global economic collapse, which is not a matter of if, but rather when, will result in the largest transfer of wealth ever seen. We’ve seen the disaster of fiat in countries like Venezuela, and Iran, and while the majority of western civilization live without any regard to the growing economic concerns of hyper-inflation, it’s those that do notice that will be secured.

Authored by CryptoWhale @

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Lessons From $COMP Price Action – Compound Token Thu, 25 Jun 2020 09:43:40 +0000 When COMP launched a week ago on Uniswap, most people were shocked to see it quickly reach $100 (implied network value of $1B) and flabbergasted when it ranged around $300 (implied network value of $3B) a few days later.

Almost everybody thought this was “overvalued,” including the Compound team that said in a governance proposal something to the effect of “we never expected COMP to be anywhere near $200 and didn’t design our distribution with that high of a price in mind.” Nowhere was this disbelief in the high price more evident than in the derivatives market where traders thought it was so overvalued that they were paying between 5-10% a day in fees to short the asset.

But leading up to the Coinbase listing, going long COMP was in my mind the clear winning strategy. Why and what can we learn from this? Beyond that, what are the implications?

Supply and demand

At first, I agreed with everybody else. COMP was overvalued and would need to come down. Why? Because of the way it listed. Like UMA just a few weeks ago, the spot market for COMP was created on Uniswap by the team (to my knowledge).

Here’s how it works:

The team creates a new pool, in this case COMP/ETH by depositing x number of COMP and number of ETH, the ratio x/y determines the “listing price” for the asset and the USD value of all the assets deposited x + y determines the “depth” of the market—the deeper the pool, the less the price moves when somebody makes an order.

Like in other markets, if somebody buys COMP, the price of COMP goes up. And if somebody sells COMP, then the price of COMP goes down.

Because the market was created by the team, the price will not go below the “listing price.” As a result, traders are motivated to be the first buyers of COMP in this pool. Their trade is “risk-free” because if they are first, the lowest the price can go is back to the “listing price.” Because the pool is relatively illiquid, the price moves a lot with relatively low volumes. So these traders seeking to scalp some risk-free profits will rapidly push the price to an elevated level. We saw this happen with just a few traders putting millions into the market pushing the price up I think 5x (need to confirm) to ~$100.

Why does this listing method suggest declining prices? It doesn’t necessarily on its own (see UMA), but because COMP was getting issued every block to users of Compound, there was continuous selling pressure. And if the sentiment of the market was that COMP was overvalued, then the likelihood of COMP earners selling was high.

Additionally, the team and investors hold ~46% of the total tokens compared to the paltry ~0.03% of tokens that were getting issued every day. Details are sparse on when those tokens unlock, so some traders were fearful that this massive pool of tokens would lead to overwhelming sell pressure.

This line of reasoning (combined with beliefs that the asset was overvalued on fundamentals) is why the market was so short the token.

Why were bears wrong?

They overestimated sellers and underestimated buyers.

Most important on the the sellers side, team and investor tokens did not hit the market. Things would have gone upside down if those tokens moved. The chances of those tokens hitting the market before the already announced Coinbase listing were close to zero because the team knows that allowing even one investor to sell a fraction of their shares into such an illiquid market would cause a panic. But not everybody believed that (I saw some comments circulating that investors had no lockup and could sell at any time, so there was some fear in the market).

The buyers side is harder to gauge. I didn’t expect many organic buyers wanting exposure to the token (a) because market sentiment was so negative and (b) the token was earnable through “yield farming” on Compound. I thought there were some parties with an incentive to offset the selling (namely locked up token holders and high volume yield farmers), but felt low conviction here.

Because of this, I expected the price to stay relatively flat. Some buyers, some sellers, and the market doesn’t really price these assets on fundamentals. With the launch of the FTX Perpetual Swap, the way to play the market was to go long the perp and collect the funding payment (if the market is short, the shorts pay longs and the market was very very short). Spot price might go slightly down but the 10% per day in funding should make up for it.

Illiquid markets

What I didn’t consider was the incentive to manipulate the market to squeeze the shorts. Teo shared a snippet from a post on the topic here:

The long and short of it (haha) is that because of the relatively large size of the COMP Perpetual Swap market, it would be profitable to buy the Perp and then buy spot in significant enough size to move the price, amplifying gains in the Perp and squeezing the shorts.

I am not a securities lawyer but based on this wikipedia page I believe that this is illegal in traditional markets? (If you know more please comment and I’ll edit your input into the post). But in a world of permissionless and pseudonymous systems trading “not-securities” this probably doesn’t apply.

It’s not even clear whether anybody actually manipulated the market, but the spot market did start going up after the listing of the perp all the way until trading started on Coinbase (which was when all the reasoning above expired and one would want to get out of their long position).

I’m not suggesting that any manipulation occurred here but this is a very clear warning of what’s to come.

This form of manipulation is made possible when spot markets are relatively illiquid relative to derivatives markets. If teams continue to release tokens “Compound style” with an illiquid AMM listing (Balancer has just done the same) combined with yield farming, then other teams have an incentive to release derivatives products to capture some of that attention. The tokens will list with elevated prices and some of the market will want to short.

If you are one of those people wanting to go short, heed these warnings. If teams want to protect these market participants, they should add more liquidity to the spot markets and delay listing derivatives until spot liquidity is sufficient. I wouldn’t count on either of these things though. Incentives are a hell of a drug.


There is one final lesson from this that could be of far far greater significance: the critical importance of oracles.

In crypto, oracles bring information from the outside world onto the blockchain. When you create a synthetic asset on Ethereum that tracks the price of a real-world asset—let’s say gold—then the blockchain is constantly asking the Oracle for the price of gold and using that information to price the ERC20 version.

We are starting to see an explosion of assets and markets that rely on information from Oracles. Until now, the market has mostly understood these dynamics in abstract. We know that Oracles need to be difficult to corrupt in order for us to want to use the asset and markets that rely on them. But there weren’t significant volumes purchasing these oracle-reliant assets or trading these oracle-reliant markets.

This is changing fast and this COMP Perp vs COMP Spot offers a concrete example of how things could go wrong.

You can think of the COMP Perp as relying on the COMP Spot price as an Oracle. The difference between the COMP Perp price and the COMP Spot price determines the funding rate. And the funding rate is what keeps the COMP Perp market tethered to reality.

As we now know, if the spot market is relatively illiquid, then the cost to “corrupt” the “oracle” (COMP Spot market) goes down, which means an attacker can profit more through exposure to the COMP Perp.

Now imagine a world where DeFi has succeeded beyond our wildest expectations. There are tokens and markets for everything from US equities to local weather. All of those assets and markets that reflect the real world are using an oracle of some sort. Those oracles need to be—for all intents and purposes—impossible to corrupt in order for this new permissionless financial system to be healthy.

It’s going to be a bumpy road. Just as investors lost their shirts buying into the outlandish promises of the ICO era, so too will investors in the DeFi era lose their shirts under-appreciating the risks of illiquid markets and corruptible oracles.

Authored by Tony Sheng

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How Crypto Trading Strategies Stem From FX Trading Thu, 25 Jun 2020 07:16:10 +0000 A lot of people who are trying to get into trading are easily confused by all of the different terms. For example, currency trading and cryptocurrency trading sound the same and cause a lot of confusion among beginners. Before we get into the actual strategies we need to discuss the similarities and differences between the two.

The foreign exchange market (Forex, or FX in short) and cryptocurrency exchange market are absolutely separate from each other although similar in lots of ways. The main reason the difference occurs is due to the way these currencies operate. Forex trading happens between currency pairs like United States Dollars into Euros (USD-EUR) or Australian Dollar (AUD) into Japanese Yen (JPY), which have one very important thing in common – they are all backed by the centralized government. The Forex market is the most liquid market in the whole world. It is decentralized meaning that all of the currencies in the world can be traded there. FX is influenced by a huge number of different things like political processes, announcements, inflation numbers, job reports, and etc. To make a small estimate it is believed that around $5.3 trillion is traded in the FX each day. This is one of the most popular trading markets in the world with lots of companies offering FX trading for beginners’ guides for everyone interested all across the internet.

Cryptocurrencies, or sometimes referred to as digital currencies, are not the same as our average Joe currencies on the FX market. First and foremost the difference is that these digital currencies are not backed by any government and in most of the countries are not even considered as actual currencies. They are hosted online and backed by peer-to-peer trading and authentication processes restricting the usage of the same cryptocurrency more than once. Cryptocurrency examples are Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and etc. These currencies are brought into the market by people called miners. The way they “mine” the currency is by exchanging the processing power of computers to secure the network and check entries in exchange for the digital cash. The cryptocurrency market has been becoming more evolved and popular during the last decade with market cap hitting $700 billion with experts believing that the numbers will only become more as time goes on. Due to the transparent nature of this market may make it more trustworthy for some investors than others like stocks for example.

The idea behind trading is the same for both markets, this is why lots of strategies that were in place or are being developed for Forex trading can be easily transferred to cryptocurrency trading as well. They are similar due to the fact that both involve exchanging a currency for another currency, however, the difference is the most visible when we start looking at the factors influencing both markets. Due to this, the volatility of the markets are hugely different from each other. On average, for extreme currency couples on Forex, the volatility may be somewhere between 1% and 0.5% in comparison to the cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which is one of the most stable crypto assets out there having volatility between 5 to 15 percent. It is apparent just by this statistic that cryptos have more appeal to people who are more open to high-risk high reward case scenarios. Here’s a small comparison to how volatile the market can get: Back in 2013, if you would have invested $1000 in Bitcoin, only 5 years later, you would have your assets grow to as much as $400,000. However, the chance of higher reward brings a huge possibility of loss of whole investment as well. Cryptocurrencies are also available to anyone across the whole world. This means that even individuals in the undeveloped countries have the ability to pick up trading without nearby banking institutions.


Since we already established the fact that trading cryptos are almost the same as trading currency pairs in the most basic of manner lets delve into some of the strategies utilized by both FX and cryptocurrency traders.


Scalping is a trading strategy, which is focused on gaining profit from minor price changes. This means that the traders who utilize this strategy, or scalpers, a huge number of trades during the day to slowly increase their revenue due to extremely tiny adjustments in prices. This strategy involves buying up a currency-pair or cryptocurrency and then after a small amount of time to sell it to gain revenue. These smaller moves accumulate into bigger gains at the end of the day. This means that scalpers have a strict exit strategy to prevent their losses. This strategy relies on the technical analysis like MACD and candlestick charts for proper execution.


Hodling is also one of the strategies in the trading market. This means that a trader is buying up stock and then keeping it for a long period of time waiting for the asset to become priced much higher than it used to be and then sold at once. For example, in the cryptocurrency market Bitcoin has one of the most cases of hodling with today’s statistics showing that almost 60% of the BTC has not been moved during the last 10 years period.

High-frequency Trading

High-frequency trading (or HFT) is one of the most popular methods of trading for financial institutions that are closely located to the market servers. It involves having a computer with huge processing power to make a transaction of large number of orders in fractions of a second. The computer utilizes powerful tools to with extremely complex algorithms to analyze huge chunks of the market and execute orders judging by the market conditions. As we have already mentioned this method is utilized by financial institutions, which are located in a very close proximity to the market servers due to the fact that this method requires a very low latency to make these transactions in the fractions of seconds to maximize the gain. It is important to note that this strategy may leave the institution with huge loses if there is some kind of disruption in its internet connection and the trading order or closing the trade order is delayed.

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A Disappointing Year for Bitcoin – Bloomberg Editor Gives 6 Reasons Mon, 15 Jun 2020 11:08:50 +0000 Joe Weisenthal, Bloomberg’s editor says that 2020 has been a disappointing year for bitcoin. In a newsletter, he wrote;

It’s been a disappointing year for Bitcoin. Here are six reasons why:

  1. Despite the extraordinary market volatility, it hasn’t surged to new heights. In fact, it continues to make a general trend of lower highs. This takes away the argument that an economic crisis creates a boom for Bitcoin.
  2. Not only has it not soared, it’s basically just gone in the same direction as the S&P throughout this volatility. Bitcoin rallied at the start of the year, then plunged during the crash, then rallied during the rebound, and it has been slumping over the last few days. This undermines the argument that Bitcoin has good portfolio diversification properties.
  3. Bitcoin has performed roughly in line in this year with Ethereum, the next most valuable and liquid cryptocurrency. This undermines the argument that in has distinct “digital gold” characteristics that will separate it from other cryptocurrencies in a crisis.
  4. The Bitcoin halving (a slowing of new supply) which many Bitcoiners championed as a likely catalyst for a move higher came and went without much impact.
  5. The Fed has engaged in extraordinary balance sheet expansion, and governments around the world are running major deficits, and it hasn’t led to the kind of inflation or currency collapse that many Bitcoiners would have predicted. So that undermines some of the popular stories about what would catalyze a Bitcoin boom.
  6. Young people are discovering the stock market via platforms like Robinhood. So to the degree that people were putting money into Bitcoin because they liked volatility and action, there’s a new competitor on the block for those dollars.

A Disappointing Year for Bitcoin - Bloomberg Editor Gives 6 Reasons

The crisis may yet be good for Bitcoin, if in its wake we get infringements on privacy that create new demand for payments that can’t be blocked. But in the meantime, all that’s happened is that a bunch of popular Bitcoin narratives have been debunked.”

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A Recipe For Financial Disaster – Bitcoin Sat, 13 Jun 2020 18:58:03 +0000

Bitcoin could be micro economic miracle worker and it could be a macroeconomic wrecking board. Nicholas Gruen, CEO Lateral Economics

Bitcoin: The End of Money as We Know It – For anyone who has not fully understood the controversial Bitcoin yet, this is a concise and informative crash course about Money and Crypto Currencies.

What do we all have in common? No matter what corner of the world you live in, you need food, water, shelter and money. Half of every transaction involves money. In exchange for goods or services, stocks, a loaf of bread, illegal drugs; you gotta pay for it. We spend much of our lives chasing money to make a living and accomplish our dreams but it’s also an instrument of destruction, some might say evil – driving criminals to lie, steal and even murder.

The existing banking system extracts enormous value from society and it is parasitic in nature. Money is a catalyst for the worst and the best of human endeavor. Before civilization, we created currency. For Wars, the path to power champion and enemy of innovation.

Money is so integral to our society and our global economy that its true nature remains a mystery to most. This is the story of money, perhaps the end of money as we know it. No matter how fat your bank account or how thin your wallet, to us, it’s all cold hard cash. There are some who want to kill it, get rid of it, burn your dollars, your euros, your yen and transform every penny you have into ones and zeros.

Digital currency entrusted to the web and computers spread across the planet. Magic internet money is called cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin – The End of Money as we Know It examines the meteoric ascent of the revolutionary cryptocurrency which rose from the ashes of the 2008 global financial crisis. As economies, and ultimately people, struggle all over the world, Bitcoin purports to provide an antidote to a world in which money is created irresponsibly by private banks. This Kickstarter funded film dissects the underlying assumptions that we make about money, and also questions the Bitcoin advocates assertions about this new digital currency. Will Bitcoin really signify the inauguration of a new Internet-based monetary system, or is it a Ponzi scheme, another bubble waiting to burst? Several experts and economic commentators, some enthusiastic and others sceptical about the potential of Bitcoin are cross-examined as the documentary explores the question: Is this the end of money as we know it?

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S&P and Global Markets Tumble On Dismal Fed Outlook, Second Virus Wave Fears Thu, 11 Jun 2020 13:01:48 +0000 According to analysts, it was one of the most dovish Fed statements in history. It was also not enough to offset the Fed’s gloomy and uncertain outlook which sees unchanged rates until 2022 and an economy that fails to recover its 2019 highs for at least three years. As a result global stocks dropped the most in five weeks and US equity futures tumbled on Thursday not only on the Fed’s sobering outlook but also on rising signs that a second wave of the pandemic has arrived; bonds rallied on bets yet more stimulus would be needed to ensure recovery and the dollar ominously rebounded indicating that financial conditions are about to get tighter again.

S&P Futures

The MSCI All-world index slid 0.75% in its largest daily loss in five weeks, while E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 fell 2% to extend the previous session’s pullback on Wall Street, sliding as lows as 3,100 a day after Powell suggested the pandemic could inflict long-lasting damage on the economy. Futures legged lower after the WSJ reproted that the EU is reportedly mulling formal antitrust charges against Amazon in the next week or two over treatment of third-party sellers, according to WSJ citing sources.

Market sentiment also took a hit as new coronavirus infections in the United States showed a slight increase after five weeks of declines, topping 2 million, but only part of which was attributed to more testing; this has led to fears of a second wave in Texas and Florida. Consider the following headlines from Bloomberg:

  • Texas reported their highest 1 day new coronavirus cases total since the pandemic emerged
  • A month after reopening, Florida reported the most new cases of any seven day period-to-date
  • California’s hospitalizations are at their highest since May 13th, having risen in nine of the past 10 days
  • Arizona’s daily tally of new cases has abruptly spiked in the last two weeks, hitting an all-time high of 1,187 on June 2

Eric Toner, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security said that “There is a new wave coming in parts of the country. It’s small and it’s distant so far, but its coming.”

“This is the first time we’ve had a little bit of negative news flow recently” on developments in the coronavirus, Dean Turner, economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, told Bloomberg TV. “Put that in the context of how far markets have come in the last few weeks, it’s not at all surprising that we get a little bit of profit-taking at this stage.”

U.S. virus cases now top 2 million, with fears of a second wave in Texas and Florida. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said the U.S. “definitely”needs more fiscal stimulus, supporting prospects for another round this summer. European policy makers meet Thursday on whether to boost aid.

Europe’s main bourses all opened with a heavy thud, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index sinking, as sectors that were bought up in the recent rally such as banks and travel leading declines.  London’s FTSE, Frankfurt’s DAX and Paris’s CAC40 were all down more than 2.5% in what for coronavirus-sensitive sectors such as carmakers and travel and tourism was a fourth straight day of drops.

Asian stocks saw a 10-day winning streak come to an abrupt finish, the drop led by finance and energy stocks in Japan and Australia. Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index members was 12% above the monthly average for this time of the day. The Topix declined 2.2%, with DLE and Relia falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.8%, with Beijing Urban-Rural Commercial Group and Shanghai Fenghwa Group posting the biggest slides.

In a reality check to the stock market’s recent euphoria, the Fed predicted the U.S. economy would shrink 6.5% in 2020 and unemployment would still be at 9.3% at year’s end.

Shortly after the latest inflation data showed core U.S. consumer prices fell for a third straight month in May, the longest stretch of declines on record, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he was “not even thinking about thinking about raising rates”. Instead, he emphasized recovery would be a long road and that policy would have to be proactive with rates near zero out to 2022.

“While Powell did not commit to any new action at this time, his focus on downside risk and uncertainty reinforces the message that they will take further action, probably by September,” JPMorgan economists said. “Outcome or calendar-based guidance looks likely and Powell left the door open for moving to some form of interest rate caps.” Powell also confirmed the Fed was studying yield curve control, although he did not hint that a launch was imminent.

YCC is probably further away today after yields on 10-year Treasuries fall 9 basis points on Wednesday, the biggest daily drop in almost two months. Treasuries extended their rally, with the biggest advance in the long end of the curve, in the wake of the Fed’s signal that it would keep rates near zero for years to come and continue its bond buying at least at current levels. 10Y yields were down at 0.70% on Thursday, a sharp rally from last week’s peak of 0.96%. German Bund yields – the benchmark for Europe – duly followed. Their 10-year levels fell to an eight-day low in early trade at -0.37%, falling 4 basis points on the day.

In FX, the risk of more Fed easing initially had the U.S. dollar under pressure, seeing it touch a three-month low against a basket of currencies at 95.714. But it then staged a rebound back towards 96.500 as risk appetite waned and stocks came off.  The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index bounced back above 1200 and the greenback advanced against most Group-of-10 peers amid a flight to safety. Commodity currencies, led by the Australian dollar and the Norwegian krone, were the biggest losers after renewed concern about the global economy and rising U.S. coronavirus cases sparked a selloff in risk assets; oil prices slumped. The yen advanced to a 4-week high versus the dollar and the Swiss franc rose to its strongest level since mid-March amid haven demand, while the pound was hurt by the risk-off tone. Sweden’s krona pared some losses after inflation came in higher than forecast.

Crude oil declined while gold faded some of Wednesday’s gain amid the rise in the dollar. WTI and Brent front month future conformed to the overall risk aversion post-Powell with added weight from a resurgence in cases State-side and ongoing questions regarding the enforcement of OPEC compliance among laggard producers. Fresh news-flow has been light for the complex this morning with price action more-so a continuation of downside from the US and APAC sessions. WTI Jul briefly breached USD 38/bbl to the downside (vs. high 39.09) multiple times but USD 37.90/bbl held as a support throughout the session thus far.

Looking at the day ahead now, data highlights include initial jobless claims from the US, along with May’s PPI reading. There’ll also be a video conference of the Eurogroup taking place. Adobe and Lululemon are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.6% to 3,134.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 2.4% to 359.47
  • MXAP down 1.8% to 159.38
  • MXAPJ down 1.7% to 512.93
  • Nikkei down 2.8% to 22,472.91
  • Topix down 2.2% to 1,588.92
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.3% to 24,480.15
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 2,920.90
  • Sensex down 1.4% to 33,774.99
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 3.1% to 5,960.64
  • Kospi down 0.9% to 2,176.78
  • German 10Y yield fell 4.8 bps to -0.379%
  • Euro up 0.09% to $1.1384
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 5.0 bps to 1.422%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.8 bps to 0.649%
  • Brent futures down 3.1% to $40.43/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,734.61
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 96.11

Top Overnight News

  • A second wave of cases in America is raising alarms after new infections pushed the overall count past 2 million
  • U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is battling to contain a public split with his top scientific advisers after they warned the government must learn from a catalog of failures it made during the coronavirus crisis
  • Governor Haruhiko Kuroda says Thursday the Bank of Japan will take all necessary measures to protect jobs, businesses and people’s livelihoods amid the pandemic
  • European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane says the PEPP expansion last week is aimed at helping a recovery and countering a “substantial negative shock to the inflation trajectory”

Asian equity markets ended the session lower as the region took its cue from the underwhelming performance on Wall St where the spotlight was on the FOMC which maintained rates as expected and projected no change in rates through to 2022, while members forecast a 6.5% contraction in the economy this year and Fed Chair Powell also struck a cautious tone during the press conference. This resulted to a choppy reaction in US stocks and most major indices finished negative with energy and financials resuming their underperformance, although tech continued to buck the trend to lift the Nasdaq to its first ever close above the 10k landmark. ASX 200 (-3.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-2.8%) were lower as Australia’s financials and energy sectors mirrored the hefty losses seen in their counterparts stateside, while sentiment in Japan was pressured by a firmer currency and further deterioration of large business surveys in which the BSI Large Manufacturing Index slumped to -52.3 from -17.2. Hang Seng (-2.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) were mixed following another drab PBoC liquidity effort and with participants mulling mixed Chinese financing data, with focus also on IPO developments after NetEase shares surged around 10% at the open on its Hong Kong debut. 10yr JGBs edged higher and broke above the 152.00 level amid gains in T-notes and weakness in stocks, while the results of the enhanced liquidity auction in the long- to super-long end were mixed but attracted a slightly higher b/c.

Top Asian News

  • Booming Online Businesses Are Next Target in Philippine Tax Hunt
  • SoftBank’s China Chip Venture Rejects Accusations Against CEO
  • Even With $500 Billion Warchest, RBI Won’t Let Rupee Climb
  • JD Is Said to Raise $3.9 Billion in Year’s Second-Largest Listing

European equities continue to bleed as the session is underway [Euro Stoxx 50 -2.2%], following a similarly downbeat APAC handover as sentiment takes a hit post-Fed with investors weighing the prospect of resurging COVID-19 cases in the US – with Texas seeing the highest one-day total since the pandemic began, Florida cases rising above key recent averages and California hospitalisations at the highest since early May. Add to that the background tensions brewing between US and China, geopolitical tensions in the Korean peninsula, Brexit risk and disagreement over EU member states over the Recovery Fund proposals. Major European bourses trade with losses deeper than 2% at the time of writing, with Netherland’s AEX (-1.5%) faring somewhat better as Unilever (+2.3%) cushioned the index as the group is to combine its Anglo-Dutch arms to streamline M&As. UK’s FTSE 100 (-2.3%) fails to glean much support from the stock as exporters bear the brunt of a firmer Sterling. Sectors all reside in the red with defensives outpacing cyclicals – Energy, Financials and Consumer Discretionary lag. The detailed breakdown paints a similar anti-cyclical picture with Travel & Leisure taking a hit on the prospect of a second wave. In terms of individual movers, Lufthansa (-6.5%) pared back a bulk of opening losses after plunging 12% at the open after stating they have a surplus of 26k employees and said job cuts would be “significantly more” than the 10k figure previously estimate. Meanwhile, PSA (-6.3%) and Fiat Chrysler (-5.6%) are subdued amid reports the merger is facing a full-scale antitrust probe as they have failed to provide the necessary concessions to EU Officials regarding the van units which they have reportedly been reluctant to sell, according to sources.

Top European News

  • Generali Is Said to Explore Options for Swiss Insurance Unit
  • Europeans Are Hoarding Billions and Have Few Plans to Spend Them
  • Unilever to Combine British, Dutch Arms in U.K. in Reversal
  • Biting Passenger Gets EU Airlines Off Hook for Flight Delays

In FX, the DXY has been choppy in wake of the FOMC, but ultimately still more inclined to extend its losing streak within a 96.503-95.946 range as the Greenback underperforms G10 counterparts with a greater weighting in the basket. For the record, no new policy changes emerged from the Fed, but maintaining accommodation via QE was reaffirmed and the new dot plots signalled no change in rates until the end of 2022, albeit not indicating any chance of NIRP either. However, beyond a nod to last Friday’s gravity-defying headline payrolls count the FOMC’s prognosis of the economic situation and tone of Chair Powell’s presser was largely downbeat. Hence, no real respite for the Buck aside from recovery gains vs high beta and more risk sensitive rivals, especially as doubts about reopening from COVID-19 have been subsequently compounded by reports of 2nd waves of the pandemic in several US states that have lifted restrictions.

  • CHF/JPY/EUR – All extending advances against the Dollar, with the Franc now on the cusp of 0.9400 and testing 1.0700 vs the Euro even though Eur/Usd is rebounding towards Wednesday’s 1.1400+ spike highs. Meanwhile, the Yen continues to grind higher and has now soaked up offers ahead of 107.00 to expose another prior peak at 106.74 that was last seen on May 13 and constituted a higher low for the headline pair.
  • GBP/SEK/CAD/NZD/AUD/NOK – The Pound remains top heavy around 1.2750 in Cable terms and above 0.8900 on the Eur/Gbp cross due to rising Brexit no deal probability and coronavirus contagion, but the Swedish Krona has gleaned some protection from broad risk aversion following firmer than forecast inflation data rather than Riksbank remarks, as Jansson contends that the near term contraction in GDP may be a bit worse than envisaged in April’s projections. Indeed, Eur/Sek is holding below 10.5000 whereas Eur/Nok has rebounded much further from recent lows to 10.7000+ at one stage amidst a deeper retreat in crude prices that is also weighing on the Loonie, with Usd/Cad firmly above 1.3400 again between 1.3398-1.3498 parameters. Similar story down under where the Kiwi and Aussie have recoiled from best levels to trade sub-0.6500 and close to 0.6900 vs their US peer, albeit with Aud/Usd holding just above stops said to be sitting in wait at 0.6898, while Nzd/Usd is now eyeing US weekly claims and PPI before Westpac’s Q2 NZ consumer survey, May manufacturing PMI and FPI for further direction.
  • EM – Risk-off positioning undermining most regional currencies, but the Yuan and Lira weathering outflows better than others after another dip in the PBoC Usd/Cny fix and Usd/Try is capped by chart resistance circa 6.7900-50.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month future conform to the overall risk aversion post-Powell with added weight from a resurgence in cases State-side and ongoing questions regarding the enforcement of OPEC compliance among laggard producers. Fresh news-flow has been light for the complex this morning with price action more-so a continuation of downside from the US and APAC sessions. WTI Jul briefly breached USD 38/bbl to the downside (vs. high 39.09) multiple times but USD 37.90/bbl held as a support throughout the session thus far. Meanwhile, Brent Aug trickles lower in tandem as it hovers around USD 40.50/bbl having found a mild base at USD 40.10/bbl and having waned off highs a touch above USD 41.00/bbl. Spot gold sees muted price action relative to the melt-down in stocks and bounce in bonds – with the yellow metal stable north of USD 1725/oz (USD 1727-40/oz intraday range) as it juggles USD action with the risk aversion in the market. Copper meanwhile retraces some of recent supply-led gains, with the risk-off tone also possibly providing the red metal with downside impetus as prices retreat from the USD 2.7/lb mark and closer to USD 2.65/lb.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand YoY, est. -1.2%, prior -1.2%; MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -1.3%
  • 8:30am: PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6%; MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.3%;
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 1.55m, prior 1.88m; Continuing Claims, est. 20m, prior 21.5m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 37

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The Fed reiterated that it expects to maintain the near-zero fed funds rate until it is confident the economy is on track to achieve the central bank’s dual mandate. The quarterly dot plot, which was not published back in March due to the high level of uncertainty in forecasting, showed rates near-zero through 2022. It was a strong signal with only two dots above zero in 2022. Powell reinforced this message with the line that they are not even “thinking about thinking about raising rates.”

Along that timeline, the central bank does not expect GDP to return to pre-recession levels until at least 2022. On QE, the Fed said that it would continue its purchases “at least at its current pace,” which amounts to $80bn Treasuries and $40bn MBS per month. This was perhaps the most dovish development as it puts a floor on how much the Fed could buy, while leaving them able to surprise to the upside.

During the press conference Powell tried to downplay last week’s jobs report surprise and manage overall expectations of the considerable risks ahead for the US economy. He said that the Fed, “will continue to use our emergency powers forcefully, proactively and aggressively until the economy is solidly on the path to recovery”. He also stressed the need for fiscal support to stimulate the economy, considering the Fed only has the power to lend. Powell called the outlook extraordinarily uncertain, but that a full recovery is unlikely before people feel safe to resume normal activities. Is that just a step away from saying before a vaccine or herd-immunity is present? In the prepared remarks Powell touched on yield curve control, saying it remains an open question. DB think they’ll announce it in September where it’ll be focused on the 3 year part of the curve. Powell also touched on the topic of asset price inflation saying that “we’re not focused on moving asset prices in a particular direction at all, it’s just we want markets to be working and partly as a result of what we’ve done, they are working.” He also alluded to the fact that the Fed was unlikely to hold back just because of high asset prices as the damage to “normal people” would be greater. So a pretty explicit message. See our economists’ piece on the meeting here.

Going into the FOMC, the equity market looked somewhat like it did on Tuesday with the S&P 500 down slightly due to cyclicals lagging and technology stocks outperforming. The market rallied around 0.7% on the press release and through the early moments of the press conference before moving between gains and losses throughout the final 2 hours of trading as Powell spoke. The S&P 500 finally closed down -0.53%. Information Technology (+1.69%) was the only sector higher in the US, as the NASDAQ rose +0.67% to another record high. With the Fed dot plot showing rates low through 2022, US Bank stocks were the worst performing industry, down -5.75% – nearly 2.5% of that move came after the Fed announcement. In other assets, the US dollar fell to a 3-month low dropping -0.29% on the day. Gold rallied +1.06% with yields likely to remain low, and to that effect 10yr Treasuries fell -9.1bps to 0.735%.

Asian markets have also weakened this morning, with notable losses for the Nikkei (-2.05%) and ASX (-3.14%) in particular, while the Hang Seng and Kospi are down -1.04% and -1.41% respectively. Bourses in China are bucking the trend, trading close to flat. Yields on 10y Treasuries are down another -1.6bps and futures on the S&P 500 are trading down -0.88%. Elsewhere, WTI oil prices are trading down -3.11% to $38.38 after a buildup in US crude stockpiles.

Seemingly also not helping sentiment this morning is news that Texas reported 2,504 new coronavirus cases yesterday, the highest one-day total since the pandemic emerged. The latest numbers also show a pickup in cases in Florida and California. Eric Toner, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security said that “There is a new wave coming in parts of the country. It’s small and it’s distant so far, but its coming.” A reminder that the current case and fatality Covid tables are in the pdf every day in the EMR.

As we navigate through the economic impact of the virus, yesterday we also published our latest weekly PowerPoint-based Exit Strategy Policy Tracker to help compare the current state of play towards reopening major economies. You can find the latest edition here.

The virus continued to cast a shadow on the data yesterday as May’s US CPI reading underperformed expectations. In terms of the month-on-month measure, both the CPI and core CPI readings came in at -0.1% (vs. 0.0% expected for both). That left the main CPI reading at just +0.1% year-on-year, which is its lowest annual rate since September 2015, while the core CPI print of +1.2% was its lowest since March 2011.

Meanwhile in Europe yesterday, financial markets struggled ahead of the Fed’s decision, as European equities fell for a 3rd day in a row. The STOXX 600 ended the session down -0.38%, while the DAX (-0.70%) and the CAC 40 (-0.82%) saw even larger falls. Against this backdrop, there was also a further divergence in sovereign bond spreads between the core and periphery. In fact, the spread of Spanish and Portuguese yields over 10yr bunds now stand above their levels before the ECB’s announcement of an extra €600bn in asset purchases last week, widening by a further +6.3bps and +7.0bps respectively. And the Italian spread also widened by +7.3bps in what was its 3rd consecutive move higher.

This repricing of peripheral risk came against the backdrop of a number of ECB headlines yesterday. Isabel Schnabel of the executive board said that the ECB didn’t “necessarily have to extend our toolbox already right now, but according to how the crisis develops there may be a time when this becomes necessary”. However, the Estonian central bank governor, Madis Muller, said that if growth recovered as expected in the second half and the inflation outlook didn’t worsen, “then I think an additional increase in the asset-purchase program isn’t needed”. Yesterday marked the first time in over two weeks that market expectations of Euro Area inflation fell, with five-year forward five-year inflation swaps snapping a run of 11 successive increases to fall by -1.6bps to 1.08%.

Staying with Europe, and yesterday saw a number of Brexit headlines, as the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said that there needed to be “clear and concrete signals” that the UK would compromise in order to reach a trade deal. It came as the Guardian reported that the European Parliament could veto such a deal if there weren’t “robust” safeguards, according to a draft resolution. That would include a level playing field, which has proven one of the biggest sticking points in the talks, but was described in the resolution as a “necessary condition for the European parliament to give its consent to a trade agreement with the UK”. Thus far the negotiations haven’t made much headway at all, so all eyes will be on a meeting expected later this month between Prime Minister Johnson and Commission President von der Leyen to see whether they will be able to break the deadlock. Remember that if a free-trade agreement can’t be reached, then we arrive at another Brexit cliff-edge at the end of the year (apologies if you’re experiencing déjà vu now…), since the end of the transition period sees the UK automatically leave the EU’s single market and customs union.

Aside from the US CPI reading there wasn’t a great deal of other data yesterday. However, we did get French industrial production for April, which fell by a further -20.1%, following a -16.2% decline in March.

To the day ahead now, and data highlights include Italian industrial production for April, weekly initial jobless claims from the US, along with May’s PPI reading for the US. This afternoon, there’ll also be a video conference of the Eurogroup taking place.

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Attention All “V” People – The Most Optimistic Case is Substantially Worse Than the Great Recession Thu, 11 Jun 2020 11:58:44 +0000 Around the same time Lehman Brothers and AIG became headline news in the middle of September 2008, none of the mainstream econometric models thought it was possible for the US economy to suffer so severe a shock that it would induce monetary policymakers to unleash ZIRP. Worse, the models all predicted that it would be impossible for anything to force the Fed down to zero and keep the central bank there for two years.

The zero lower bound (ZLB) is a constant bogeyman for Economists, denoting not just difficulties nominal interest rate measures have surmounting it but more so the level of economic damage (and the implied dereliction of duty) it would take for this to happen.

While Ben Bernanke was crafting the narrative of his heroism and courage, hardly anyone dared to ask why he hadn’t seen GFC1 coming. The very notion of a global monetary panic had been heartily dismissed, especially with this particular guy at the helm (who had made his academic reputation as some kind of Great Depression scholar; obviously not the right kind). Even after the crisis began showing signs, he most famously ignored them telling everyone subprime was contained.

In the (very) few cases when someone did openly wonder, his dissembling answer would always depend mostly upon the vague notion of “complexity.” I’ll supply one such example here gleaned from an interview then-Chairman Bernanke gave just two weeks before being forced down to the zero lower bound in December 2008:

I and others were mistaken early on in saying that the subprime crisis would be contained. The causal relationship between the housing problem and the broad financial system was very complex and difficult to predict.

But, damn it, that was your job! Not playing around with fancy equations on a blackboard.

He like every other Economist had fallen into a trap, one they had all set for themselves through econometrics. As Ronald Coase had warned whilst accepting his Nobel Prize, these academics only speak gibberish because they long ago gave up on trying to understand the real economy in pursuit of quantifying unicorns and windmills.

As a result, if the models tell the Federal Reserve’s bulging ranks of Economists there’s no danger, who is Ben Bernanke to think otherwise for himself? Groupthink given the gloss of objectivity by “science”; really GIGO.

By 2011, obviously, even the capital “E” Economists had been struck flatly upon their heads by a very different reality. Not only ZLB, but ZLB at two years and counting. The impossible had happened becoming even more impossible-r by the quarter.

Trying to figure out what had been missed, several of the Federal Reserve’s researchers wrote a paper that instead perfectly demonstrates the absurdity of the entire discipline. The models, to put it bluntly, didn’t model reality.

For one thing, confirmation and recency bias was rampant. Since nothing bad had happened in a long time, and drawing statistics from this period when nothing bad had happened in a long time, the models assumed (“random good luck” as Stock and Watson called it) that nothing so bad could happen.

Rather than figure out the inherent flaws in that thinking as well as the monetary system behind everything, they all assumed the breakdown in it as nothing more likely than a small random error. We all paid the price for that one.

More than anything, though, Economists should have been aware that we live in a dynamic world (duh!) Yet, most models incorporate only static assumptions that are rarely revisited, and as a result they almost always overstate the upside compared to any departures downward.

[R]elying on model stochastic simulations that assume constant parameters and variances, and so abstract from data and parameter uncertainty, contributes to an underestimate of the probability of encountering the ZLB. Our results indicate that time-varying parameters, measurement error, and parameter uncertainty can noticeably raise the estimated probability of hitting the zero lower bound, indicating that future research should incorporate these factors in the analysis.

But it wasn’t just underestimating the probability of reaching the ZLB, though. As the authors also conclude, the major error was in how the US economy stayed in that weak state for far longer than anyone had thought, and calculated, possible.

What has been a surprise is the magnitude and duration of the constraint imposed by the ZLB in the United States and in some other countries.

You aren’t supposed to be forced down to zero and get stuck there. Japan was judged to be the outlier, not the base case.

This was, essentially, what former Fed Vice Chairman Stan Fischer had apologized for (but only to a foreign audience) in 2014.

Year after year we have had to explain from mid-year on why the global growth rate has been lower than predicted as little as two quarters back. Indeed, research done by my colleagues at the Federal Reserve comparing previous cases of severe recessions suggests that, even conditional on the depth and duration of the Great Recession and its association with a banking and financial crisis, the recoveries in the advanced economies have been well below average.

Lest you think that having recognized their error the models must have been corrected for it, I only ask that you think back to late 2018. Using the same statistical constructions, Jay Powell had been…under-optimistic?

Not remotely. Despite the distinct lack of evidence for any inflation, including that scenario being outright rejected in the bond market as far back as 2017, all the mainstream models (and Jay Powell’s mouth) kept predicting accelerating growth and recovery. Paging Stan Fischer, over-optimistic still by default.

The reason for reviewing this tortured recent history of econometrics will be obvious when you see what comes next.

And that is, more estimates being made for what comes next. We’ve survived the non-economic shutdown, halleluiah! Except, only now is it time to begin surveying the damage especially as survivor’s euphoria fades. The rampant “V” narrative in the mainstream and trading on Wall Street is derived from the belief there won’t be any damage beyond the extreme short run – and that’s already past tense.

Except, case after case now the modeled projections are appearing all eerily the same way. I showed you last week what it’s expected to look like in Europe, and before that the CBO’s figures as they relate to the US labor market. They are only outwardly “V”-like, in truth devastatingly bad.

All of them: massive shrinking this year and only a partial comeback being extended well beyond the visible horizon.

ABOOK June 2020 Payrolls CBO Models Updated May

Another set of mainstream projections has been tabulated and supplied by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). According to its latest panel views, real GDP is anticipated to rebound sharply in Q3 and Q4 surprising no one (except, apparently, everyone who is already an optimistic “V” person).

In fact, their projected number for next quarter is nearly double digits, and what would amount to the biggest positive since 1978. And then next year, 2021, the economy would grow at 3.6% for the year, which would be almost double the best year posted since Ben Bernanke’s massive screw up.

We are entering the window of gigantic positives – all of them leaving us instead with an enormous economic disaster on our hands.

June 2020 NABE GDP pro forma short run

You can see what I mean when I write that all the projections are starting to look the same. It’s as if Economists and their faulty models understand reality in a way that doesn’t penetrate the NYSE’s closed corridors.

Not one “V” person is expecting this sort of “V.” Not one.

And yet, all of these projections are being put together by the mainstream econometric models, those which we know for a fact are…overly pessimistic? No. They are, time and again, proved to be wildly over-optimistic.

As I’ve written too many times lately, the best case is downright atrocious.

June 2020 NABE GDP pro forma longer run

June 2020 NABE GDP pro forma back to V

How bad is it? If we extrapolate the NABE’s estimates out further into the future, we get real GDP back to even 13 quarters after it had reached its prior peak in Q4 2019. That’s nearly the same length of time as the Great “Recession” and its false recovery, the very same one which had confounded the optimistic projections the last time we did this.

In other words, the current base case is as long and much deeper than 2008-09. Let me repeat that: the best case is an economic hole as long and much deeper than the economy of GFC1. And that’s assuming everything goes perfectly, including 3.6% real GDP growth not just in 2021 but also 2022 and into 2023. What are the chances of that happening?

Don’t ask Stan Fischer.

What that ultimately means is even more profound, even though it’s already ridiculously profound starting here. What I mean is, because we keep seeing this best case and because it is so bad that can only mean the risks to it are entirely on the downside. And I don’t just mean model risks or the high probability the economy will fail to live up to these optimistic assessments.

David Parkins Complex Fragile System Avalanche

No, far more important: what happens when this disaster begins to dawn on everyone right now expecting way, way beyond the best case? Those who are being led to believe this is all one big nothing, sporting no lingering after-effects. The risks of another leg in GFC2 are much, much higher because even hitting these forecasts would leave such a massive scar, a gigantic economic hole that won’t be papered over by Jay Powell’s newfound penchant for lying.

The only thing seeing this same scenario being spit out of model after model does is how it explains exactly why the guy would lie his ass off on 60 Minutes. When the most optimistic case is substantially worse than the Great “Recession”…

Authored by Jeffrey P. Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments.

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The Attraction of Physical & Digital Gold – Why Now? Thu, 11 Jun 2020 08:38:15 +0000 Managing editor of Real Vision Roger Hirst joined Kenneth Lewis, CEO of One Gold and APMEX, to talk about why now could be an exciting time to invest in digital gold. Currently, many investors are looking at physical gold or a financial asset such as an ETF – but now could be the time to consider investing in a digital format alongside physical bullion. Why Digital Gold? Why Now? And how to play it.

Kenneth Lewis is the CEO of One Gold and APMEX. Companies that over the last 15+ years, have sold more than 130 million ounces of Gold and Silver in more than 60 countries around the world. Since opening its doors in 2000, APMEX remains one of the largest sources in the precious metals industry, providing buying, selling and educational resources.

“While much of the world has been in lockdown, financial markets have continued to operate, often with spectacular results. For investors, some of the greatest opportunities of our lifetime will unfold in the coming months and years. This is not a time to shy away from investment ideas. This is the time to embrace them and investigate their potential for our investment portfolios. We’ve asked experts from across a range of different markets about why we should invest in them and why now.

Gold is currently one of the hottest investment themes with a large number of leading institutions and high profile hedge fund managers actively engaging in this space. Central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve, have gone into overdrive with their money printing activities. Its balance sheet has expanded at an extraordinary pace, with many estimating that it will top 10 trillion by the end of this year.

Economic uncertainty, fiscal and monetary accommodation at record levels and increasing concerns that we may see extreme forms of either inflation and deflation or both is the backdrop that should be extremely supportive of gold. But once you’ve decided to buy gold, you still need to decide what form that should take. ETF, physical or digital. Many investors want to take ownership of physical gold rather than as a financial assets such as an ETF.

I asked Kenneth Lewis, CEO of at Maxim Won Gold, about the various forms of bullion can take and in particular why digital gold is an exciting alternative and why now is the time to start thinking about a digital format alongside physical bullion. What is the attraction of physical and digital gold compared to obtaining exposure through instruments such as an ETF like the G.L. deal? Why physical, metal or digital metal?”

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Lifeline for India’s Credit Crunch – Gold Thu, 11 Jun 2020 07:55:56 +0000 Gold is serving as a lifeline for beleaguered Indians in the midst of severe credit crunch. The government response to the coronavirus pandemic has ravaged the Indian economy. As a result, many banks are reluctant to extend credit due to fear of defaults. In this tight lending environment, many Indians are using their stashes of gold to secure loans.

For instance, Umesh Patil used 40 grams of gold toe raise 130,000 rupees ($1,723.11) in order to purchase seed and supplies to plant his next crop. He told Reuters it was next to impossible for him to secure a loan from a big bank.

State-run banks were seeking lots of documents for crop loans and furnishing them all wasn’t possible quickly. So I decided to pawn jewelry. I got a loan from a local co-operative bank in just an hour.

According to Reuters, loan growth in India is decelerating rapidly, and analysts project it will hit a multi-decade low of 0 to 1% in the current financial year due to fallout from the pandemic. Somasundaram P.R., head of the World Gold Council’s Indian operations, said gold will continue to serve as a vital lifeline as credit shrinks.

As banks could exhibit greater risk aversion in the current context, gold loans would be a convenient route for many customers to raise liquidity and working capital.

For many Indians, holding gold provides liquidity that they otherwise wouldn’t have.

Indians traditionally buy and hold gold. Collectively, Indian households own an estimated 25,000 tons of gold. The yellow metal is interwoven into the country’s marriage ceremonies and cultural rites. Indians also value gold as a store of wealth, especially in poor rural regions. Two-thirds of India’s gold demand comes from these areas, where the vast majority of people live outside the official tax system.

Gold is not just a luxury in India. Even poor people buy gold in the Asian nation. According to an ICE 360 survey in 2018, one in every two households in India purchased gold within the last five years. Overall, 87% of households in the country own some amount of the yellow metal. Even households at the lowest income levels in India own some gold. According to the survey, more than 75% of families in the bottom 10% had managed to buy gold.

Gold was also a major source of liquidity in 2016 when the Indian government launched a demonetization scheme. In November of that year, the Indian government declared that 1,000 and 500 rupee notes would no longer be valid. They gave the public just four hours notice. The 1,000 and 500 rupee notes made up 86 % of the currency in circulation in the country. With a single pronouncement, the Indian government made virtually all of the cash in India valueless. Many Indians have thwarted a government policy to bring the underground economy out of the shadows by converting their “black money” into gold.

Indians understand that gold tends to store value, and that in the end, gold is money. If they have gold, they know they will be able to get the goods and services they need – even in the event of an economic meltdown. And while westerners may not embrace the cultural and religious aspects of the Indian love affair with gold, the economic reasons for their devotion to the yellow metal are every bit as applicable in places like the US.

Originally published over

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