Raoul Pal founder of the investment group Global Macro Investors, Real Vision group, and a former head of equities and derivatives at Goldman Sachs weighed in on bitcoin in an interview with Stephan Livera on his podcast this week. He said during the podcast:
I know all these macro guys, they’re all in it. They get it. They get the optionality. They may be complete believers, part believers, partial believers. But even then, if it’s a 1% chance of being right and the upside is 100x from here, you’d do this all day.
He also said that the potential reward of investing in bitcoin outweighs all the cons, the currency is expected to grow tremendously and if there is a slightest of chance that it reaches the level it would be a golden opportunity for investors. He is of the view that seeing the potential growth of the currency it would be a very hot investment in the future, he said:
So, if it’s worth 80 trillion dollars, let’s say you have a 10% probability, that’s 8 trillion dollars. It’s currently worth 200 billion dollars. So even if there’s a 1% chance of it working […] what it’s telling you is that it’s ludicrously underpriced if any of these probabilities play out.
He also added that the numbers were crazy attractive, and that is why the macroeconomics guys that have been crypto dissidents are so against it because they have never seen numbers like this. During his interview, he also referenced PlanB’s tweets in which the analyst analyzes different stocks to flow models of the bitcoin supply after the BTC block reward’s halving which will happen sometime next year.
The 1-million-dollar prediction:
PlanB’s tweets also predict that the price of bitcoin can go to $100,000 by 2020 when the halving event happens and by the next halving event in 2024 the price may go upwards of $1 million. While some may call the estimate as a very generous estimate, Pal seems to think that the estimate is not that far off. He said:
“Yeah, it’s an option. And, okay, it’s less of an option than it was when it was much cheaper, but if you look at PlanB’s stock-flow model, stuff like that, you can see the comparative upside. And if you try and get your head around the digitization of everything, if you try and get your head around an alternative financial system, even if it has a low probability, right?”
His 200$ bet:
The ex-Goldman exec also narrated his history with the crypto citing how he got to know about the currency when it was trading at 17 cents. He said that he purchased 200$ worth of bitcoin and is made a quite a hefty return from it. He explained:
I first discovered Bitcoin, because some of my clients had begun to mine it when it was at 17 cents. They were running a hedge fund, and they happened to have electricity included in their office space, and somebody talked to them. They were very, very early adopters. So, I wrote an article. I got long, around $200.