Consequences of Bitcoin Halving – Historical Analysis

Before a year and a half, the rising crypto empire faced significant downfalls. The conditions of most of the top cryptocurrencies (including Bitcoin, altcoin, and Ethereum) had never been that downhill before, with an average of 70 – 80% declines.

However, 2019 was the year that saved many reputations. Ethereum and Bitcoin had a rise of more than 48.69% and 55.45%, respectively. With this ‘big save’ in view, the crypto empire now anticipates the arrival of the next big event, that is, the Bitcoin Halving.

What is the Bitcoin Halving?

Bitcoin Halving is an event that takes place every four years. It is when a digital network’s inflation rate is cut down by 50%, thus the Half-ing. The Halving event in return not only increases the mining cost for network security, but it also cuts down the amount of new specific crypto entering in its daily circulatory cycle.

The History of Bitcoin Halving

To be able to analyze what the future holds, patterns followed in the past is just as important to understand. However, it shall be kept in mind that future results may not always follow previous paths.

First Halving

The very first Bitcoin Halving took place on the 28th of November, 2012. This one officially initiated the pattern that leads to an astonishing decrease of the block reward to 25BTC per block. Historically, it was noted that the change in trend had sprung in the summers of 2011 and the first big jump was recorded in November 2011.

This first change caused more than a 341.9% increase in the price of Bitcoin. Gradually it leads to the official First Halving with a $12.31 per BTC.

This event gradually brought the Bitcoin’s inflation rate down to approximately 3,600 BTC per day from 7,200 BTC per day. Bitcoin then went ahead and crossed over 8,000% in a year till November 2013.

However, just a month later, in December 2013, Bitcoin reduced over 80% that lead it to become a bear market. It was the case before Bitcoin investors saw new sparks of improvement roughly two years later.

Second Halving

The second Halving event was observed on the 9th of July, 2016. It leads to block reward being reduced to 12.5 BTC per block. It had been approximately 3.6 years since the last Halving event. The ‘pre-halving’ (when the improvement in trend was first observed) was experienced in October 2015, which was 9 months before the third Halving.

It had resulted in increasing Bitcoin to 112% in a total of 9 months. The trade price per BTC even rose to $650. It was significantly noticed that this Halving had dropped the inflation rate to 1800 BTC approximately.

This event had lead Bitcoin to mark its highest in December of 2017 with the price of $20,000 BTC and an increase of more than 2,800% in 18 months. However, it was in December 2018 that Bitcoin hit rock bottom with $3,200 BTC, dropping approximately 80% in a single year.

Third Halving

The much anticipated Halving event is yet due in May or June of 2020, assumed based on 10 minutes per block rate. Already decreasing the block reward to 6.25BTC, it will take place in 57,455 blocks.

Picking up from the previous data, it would be safe to say that Bitcoin is expected to perform very well as we reach the assumed time of the third Halving. It would not be too risky to state that a double-digit increase in percentage is expected in the upcoming year. Also, bitcoin may as well commence to a peak price of $10,000 per BTC (half of the current) by the next year or year and a half.

Moreover, for investors, it would be safe to say that previous years may have given hard times, but the future remains bright. The Bitcoin will hopefully be brought up in its records smoother than ever.


Ahsan Khalid

Blockchain Developer. An Electrical Engineer with majors in software development. I present forward my insight regarding the latest happenings of the blockchain world. All views on my articles are my own. Email: or

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